Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system

Jari J. Miettinen, Jussi Ikaheimo, Topi Rasku, Hannele Holttinen, Juha Kiviluoma

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

    2 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Many decisions in the power system are based on the day-ahead forecasting of production and consumption. In the presence of storages and demand side management (together the 'flexibility assets') the day-ahead forecast horizon might not be enough for optimal utilization of these assets. This paper shows that by increasing the forecast horizon of wind power the operational costs in the power system of the Baltic Sea region can be reduced. As the forecast horizon increases the largest cost savings are on the fuel cost of mid-merit units, whereas for the base load units the longer forecast horizon increases the operational costs. Furthermore, as the forecast horizon approaches one week, the results indicate that the relative impact on the operational cost savings start to reduce. Therefore, the increase of the forecast horizon can run up against a limit, which after the forecasts may not contain any valuable information for decision making.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publication15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018
    PublisherIEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers
    ISBN (Electronic)978-1-5386-1488-4
    ISBN (Print)978-1-5386-1489-1
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 24 Sep 2018
    MoE publication typeNot Eligible
    Event15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018 - Lodz, Poland
    Duration: 27 Jun 201829 Jun 2018
    Conference number: 15

    Conference

    Conference15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018
    Abbreviated titleEEM 2018
    CountryPoland
    CityLodz
    Period27/06/1829/06/18

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    Keywords

    • Energy storage
    • Power system modeling
    • Wind energy
    • Wind energy integration

    Cite this

    Miettinen, J. J., Ikaheimo, J., Rasku, T., Holttinen, H., & Kiviluoma, J. (2018). Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system. In 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018 [8469219] IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers . https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469219