Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system

Jari J. Miettinen, Jussi Ikaheimo, Topi Rasku, Hannele Holttinen, Juha Kiviluoma

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Many decisions in the power system are based on the day-ahead forecasting of production and consumption. In the presence of storages and demand side management (together the 'flexibility assets') the day-ahead forecast horizon might not be enough for optimal utilization of these assets. This paper shows that by increasing the forecast horizon of wind power the operational costs in the power system of the Baltic Sea region can be reduced. As the forecast horizon increases the largest cost savings are on the fuel cost of mid-merit units, whereas for the base load units the longer forecast horizon increases the operational costs. Furthermore, as the forecast horizon approaches one week, the results indicate that the relative impact on the operational cost savings start to reduce. Therefore, the increase of the forecast horizon can run up against a limit, which after the forecasts may not contain any valuable information for decision making.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018
PublisherIEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-5386-1488-4
ISBN (Print)978-1-5386-1489-1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 24 Sep 2018
MoE publication typeNot Eligible
Event15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018 - Lodz, Poland
Duration: 27 Jun 201829 Jun 2018
Conference number: 15

Conference

Conference15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018
Abbreviated titleEEM 2018
CountryPoland
CityLodz
Period27/06/1829/06/18

Fingerprint

Costs
Wind power
Decision making
Forecast horizon
Power system
Assets
Cost savings
Demand side management
Baltic Sea

Keywords

  • Energy storage
  • Power system modeling
  • Wind energy
  • Wind energy integration

Cite this

Miettinen, J. J., Ikaheimo, J., Rasku, T., Holttinen, H., & Kiviluoma, J. (2018). Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system. In 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018 [8469219] IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers . https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469219
Miettinen, Jari J. ; Ikaheimo, Jussi ; Rasku, Topi ; Holttinen, Hannele ; Kiviluoma, Juha. / Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system. 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018. IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers , 2018.
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Miettinen, JJ, Ikaheimo, J, Rasku, T, Holttinen, H & Kiviluoma, J 2018, Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system. in 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018., 8469219, IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers , 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018, Lodz, Poland, 27/06/18. https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469219

Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system. / Miettinen, Jari J.; Ikaheimo, Jussi; Rasku, Topi; Holttinen, Hannele; Kiviluoma, Juha.

15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018. IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers , 2018. 8469219.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

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Miettinen JJ, Ikaheimo J, Rasku T, Holttinen H, Kiviluoma J. Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system. In 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018. IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers . 2018. 8469219 https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469219