Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system

Jari J. Miettinen; Jussi Ikaheimo; Topi Rasku; Hannele Holttinen; Juha Kiviluoma

doi:10.1109/EEM.2018.8469219

Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system

Jari J. Miettinen, Jussi Ikaheimo, Topi Rasku, Hannele Holttinen, Juha Kiviluoma

DOES - Design and Operation of Energy Systems

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference article in proceedings › Scientific › peer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Many decisions in the power system are based on the day-ahead forecasting of production and consumption. In the presence of storages and demand side management (together the 'flexibility assets') the day-ahead forecast horizon might not be enough for optimal utilization of these assets. This paper shows that by increasing the forecast horizon of wind power the operational costs in the power system of the Baltic Sea region can be reduced. As the forecast horizon increases the largest cost savings are on the fuel cost of mid-merit units, whereas for the base load units the longer forecast horizon increases the operational costs. Furthermore, as the forecast horizon approaches one week, the results indicate that the relative impact on the operational cost savings start to reduce. Therefore, the increase of the forecast horizon can run up against a limit, which after the forecasts may not contain any valuable information for decision making.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018
Publisher	IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers
ISBN (Electronic)	978-1-5386-1488-4
ISBN (Print)	978-1-5386-1489-1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469219
Publication status	Published - 24 Sep 2018
MoE publication type	Not Eligible
Event	15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018 - Lodz, Poland Duration: 27 Jun 2018 → 29 Jun 2018 Conference number: 15

Conference

Conference	15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018
Abbreviated title	EEM 2018
Country/Territory	Poland
City	Lodz
Period	27/06/18 → 29/06/18

Keywords

Energy storage
Power system modeling
Wind energy
Wind energy integration

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10.1109/EEM.2018.8469219

Cite this

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title = "Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system",

abstract = "Many decisions in the power system are based on the day-ahead forecasting of production and consumption. In the presence of storages and demand side management (together the 'flexibility assets') the day-ahead forecast horizon might not be enough for optimal utilization of these assets. This paper shows that by increasing the forecast horizon of wind power the operational costs in the power system of the Baltic Sea region can be reduced. As the forecast horizon increases the largest cost savings are on the fuel cost of mid-merit units, whereas for the base load units the longer forecast horizon increases the operational costs. Furthermore, as the forecast horizon approaches one week, the results indicate that the relative impact on the operational cost savings start to reduce. Therefore, the increase of the forecast horizon can run up against a limit, which after the forecasts may not contain any valuable information for decision making.",

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Miettinen, JJ, Ikaheimo, J , Rasku, T, Holttinen, H & Kiviluoma, J 2018, Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system. in 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018., 8469219, IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018, Lodz, Poland, 27/06/18. https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2018.8469219

Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system. / Miettinen, Jari J.; Ikaheimo, Jussi ; Rasku, Topi et al.

15th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2018. IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, 2018. 8469219.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference article in proceedings › Scientific › peer-review

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T1 - Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system

AU - Miettinen, Jari J.

AU - Ikaheimo, Jussi

AU - Rasku, Topi

AU - Holttinen, Hannele

AU - Kiviluoma, Juha

N1 - Conference code: 15

PY - 2018/9/24

Y1 - 2018/9/24

N2 - Many decisions in the power system are based on the day-ahead forecasting of production and consumption. In the presence of storages and demand side management (together the 'flexibility assets') the day-ahead forecast horizon might not be enough for optimal utilization of these assets. This paper shows that by increasing the forecast horizon of wind power the operational costs in the power system of the Baltic Sea region can be reduced. As the forecast horizon increases the largest cost savings are on the fuel cost of mid-merit units, whereas for the base load units the longer forecast horizon increases the operational costs. Furthermore, as the forecast horizon approaches one week, the results indicate that the relative impact on the operational cost savings start to reduce. Therefore, the increase of the forecast horizon can run up against a limit, which after the forecasts may not contain any valuable information for decision making.

AB - Many decisions in the power system are based on the day-ahead forecasting of production and consumption. In the presence of storages and demand side management (together the 'flexibility assets') the day-ahead forecast horizon might not be enough for optimal utilization of these assets. This paper shows that by increasing the forecast horizon of wind power the operational costs in the power system of the Baltic Sea region can be reduced. As the forecast horizon increases the largest cost savings are on the fuel cost of mid-merit units, whereas for the base load units the longer forecast horizon increases the operational costs. Furthermore, as the forecast horizon approaches one week, the results indicate that the relative impact on the operational cost savings start to reduce. Therefore, the increase of the forecast horizon can run up against a limit, which after the forecasts may not contain any valuable information for decision making.

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KW - Power system modeling

KW - Wind energy

KW - Wind energy integration

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Impact of longer stochastic forecast horizon on the operational cost of a power system

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