Impacts of automated transport on cities: How to discuss and study impact mechanisms

This paper focuses on three main topics: the impacts that automated transport may have on cities in different scenarios, the impact mechanisms, and the methods to develop and discuss impact paths. We describe methods to break down the complex question of the impact of automated driving on society. By decomposing the impact into smaller impact areas and then further into factors determining or influencing the impacts, and into performance indicators that address specific issues, we aim to be able to go more in-depth in focussed discussions. By discussing, and investigating, for example, how automated driving can influence mobility behaviour we can focus on changes in mobility patterns that will influence the amount of traffic on the roads. The impact pathways are often depicted as a linear trajectory, even though they are not necessarily such. In the discussions, experts had different ideas about the directions of the outcomes of performance indicators, because they followed more complex impact paths, having in mind more variables and feedbacks affecting the outcome. Currently, we're developing a model of the impact paths in the form of causal loop diagrams, and a next step could be the development of quantified system dynamics models to be used for scenario and policy understanding.