Abstract
Validation and confidence in risk analysis results are difficult to achieve for Low Probability–High Consequence (LPHC) events. By definition, such events do not provide empirical evidence and hence expert judgments are used in deriving probability measures regarding the occurrences and consequences of such events. The more complicated the risk analysis is in terms of model structure, parameters, variables, and assumptions, the more judgments are needed. The user of the risk analysis results may rightfully ask ‘what is the confidence in the results?’ In the paper a linkage between a variable’s information- and confidence-level is shown where a higher information-level is coupled with a lower confidence-level for LPHC events. This suggests one way of dealing with confidence: a risk analysis result may be presented with lower information but with higher confidence. If such a trade-off is not possible, or does not solve the problem regarding confidence, basic management strategies related to ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ confidence levels are proposed to guide the decision-maker. The paper ends with the conjecture that a three-level confidence scale is enough for grading the confidence in risk analysis results related to LPHC events.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017 |
| Subtitle of host publication | Theory and Applications |
| Editors | Marko Cepin, Radim Briš |
| Place of Publication | London |
| Publisher | CRC Press |
| Pages | 1125-1130 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 978-1-315-21046-9 |
| ISBN (Print) | 978-1-138-62937-0 |
| Publication status | Published - 2017 |
| MoE publication type | Not Eligible |
| Event | 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017 - Portoroz, Slovenia Duration: 18 Jun 2017 → 22 Jun 2017 |
Conference
| Conference | 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017 |
|---|---|
| Abbreviated title | ESREL 2017 |
| Country | Slovenia |
| City | Portoroz |
| Period | 18/06/17 → 22/06/17 |
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Information and confidence levels in risk results : Can both be obtained? / Rosqvist, Tony.
Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017: Theory and Applications. ed. / Marko Cepin; Radim Briš. London : CRC Press, 2017. p. 1125-1130.Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference article in proceedings › Scientific › peer-review
TY - GEN
T1 - Information and confidence levels in risk results
T2 - Can both be obtained?
AU - Rosqvist, Tony
PY - 2017
Y1 - 2017
N2 - Validation and confidence in risk analysis results are difficult to achieve for Low Probability–High Consequence (LPHC) events. By definition, such events do not provide empirical evidence and hence expert judgments are used in deriving probability measures regarding the occurrences and consequences of such events. The more complicated the risk analysis is in terms of model structure, parameters, variables, and assumptions, the more judgments are needed. The user of the risk analysis results may rightfully ask ‘what is the confidence in the results?’ In the paper a linkage between a variable’s information- and confidence-level is shown where a higher information-level is coupled with a lower confidence-level for LPHC events. This suggests one way of dealing with confidence: a risk analysis result may be presented with lower information but with higher confidence. If such a trade-off is not possible, or does not solve the problem regarding confidence, basic management strategies related to ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ confidence levels are proposed to guide the decision-maker. The paper ends with the conjecture that a three-level confidence scale is enough for grading the confidence in risk analysis results related to LPHC events.
AB - Validation and confidence in risk analysis results are difficult to achieve for Low Probability–High Consequence (LPHC) events. By definition, such events do not provide empirical evidence and hence expert judgments are used in deriving probability measures regarding the occurrences and consequences of such events. The more complicated the risk analysis is in terms of model structure, parameters, variables, and assumptions, the more judgments are needed. The user of the risk analysis results may rightfully ask ‘what is the confidence in the results?’ In the paper a linkage between a variable’s information- and confidence-level is shown where a higher information-level is coupled with a lower confidence-level for LPHC events. This suggests one way of dealing with confidence: a risk analysis result may be presented with lower information but with higher confidence. If such a trade-off is not possible, or does not solve the problem regarding confidence, basic management strategies related to ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ confidence levels are proposed to guide the decision-maker. The paper ends with the conjecture that a three-level confidence scale is enough for grading the confidence in risk analysis results related to LPHC events.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061376279&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference article in proceedings
SN - 978-1-138-62937-0
SP - 1125
EP - 1130
BT - Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017
A2 - Cepin, Marko
A2 - Briš, Radim
PB - CRC Press
CY - London
ER -