Information and confidence levels in risk results

Can both be obtained?

Tony Rosqvist

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Validation and confidence in risk analysis results are difficult to achieve for Low Probability–High Consequence (LPHC) events. By definition, such events do not provide empirical evidence and hence expert judgments are used in deriving probability measures regarding the occurrences and consequences of such events. The more complicated the risk analysis is in terms of model structure, parameters, variables, and assumptions, the more judgments are needed. The user of the risk analysis results may rightfully ask ‘what is the confidence in the results?’ In the paper a linkage between a variable’s information- and confidence-level is shown where a higher information-level is coupled with a lower confidence-level for LPHC events. This suggests one way of dealing with confidence: a risk analysis result may be presented with lower information but with higher confidence. If such a trade-off is not possible, or does not solve the problem regarding confidence, basic management strategies related to ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ confidence levels are proposed to guide the decision-maker. The paper ends with the conjecture that a three-level confidence scale is enough for grading the confidence in risk analysis results related to LPHC events.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSafety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017
Subtitle of host publicationTheory and Applications
EditorsMarko Cepin, Radim Briš
Place of PublicationLondon
PublisherCRC Press
Pages1125-1130
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-315-21046-9
ISBN (Print)978-1-138-62937-0
Publication statusPublished - 2017
MoE publication typeNot Eligible
Event27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017 - Portoroz, Slovenia
Duration: 18 Jun 201722 Jun 2017

Conference

Conference27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017
Abbreviated titleESREL 2017
CountrySlovenia
CityPortoroz
Period18/06/1722/06/17

Fingerprint

Confidence
Risk analysis
Empirical evidence
Trade-offs
Management strategy
Grading
Decision maker
Linkage
Expert judgment

Cite this

Rosqvist, T. (2017). Information and confidence levels in risk results: Can both be obtained? In M. Cepin, & R. Briš (Eds.), Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017: Theory and Applications (pp. 1125-1130). London: CRC Press.
Rosqvist, Tony. / Information and confidence levels in risk results : Can both be obtained?. Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017: Theory and Applications. editor / Marko Cepin ; Radim Briš. London : CRC Press, 2017. pp. 1125-1130
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title = "Information and confidence levels in risk results: Can both be obtained?",
abstract = "Validation and confidence in risk analysis results are difficult to achieve for Low Probability–High Consequence (LPHC) events. By definition, such events do not provide empirical evidence and hence expert judgments are used in deriving probability measures regarding the occurrences and consequences of such events. The more complicated the risk analysis is in terms of model structure, parameters, variables, and assumptions, the more judgments are needed. The user of the risk analysis results may rightfully ask ‘what is the confidence in the results?’ In the paper a linkage between a variable’s information- and confidence-level is shown where a higher information-level is coupled with a lower confidence-level for LPHC events. This suggests one way of dealing with confidence: a risk analysis result may be presented with lower information but with higher confidence. If such a trade-off is not possible, or does not solve the problem regarding confidence, basic management strategies related to ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ confidence levels are proposed to guide the decision-maker. The paper ends with the conjecture that a three-level confidence scale is enough for grading the confidence in risk analysis results related to LPHC events.",
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Rosqvist, T 2017, Information and confidence levels in risk results: Can both be obtained? in M Cepin & R Briš (eds), Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017: Theory and Applications. CRC Press, London, pp. 1125-1130, 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017, Portoroz, Slovenia, 18/06/17.

Information and confidence levels in risk results : Can both be obtained? / Rosqvist, Tony.

Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017: Theory and Applications. ed. / Marko Cepin; Radim Briš. London : CRC Press, 2017. p. 1125-1130.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

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Rosqvist T. Information and confidence levels in risk results: Can both be obtained? In Cepin M, Briš R, editors, Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017: Theory and Applications. London: CRC Press. 2017. p. 1125-1130