Information and confidence levels in risk results: Can both be obtained?

Tony Rosqvist

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

    Abstract

    Validation and confidence in risk analysis results are difficult to achieve for Low Probability–High Consequence (LPHC) events. By definition, such events do not provide empirical evidence and hence expert judgments are used in deriving probability measures regarding the occurrences and consequences of such events. The more complicated the risk analysis is in terms of model structure, parameters, variables, and assumptions, the more judgments are needed. The user of the risk analysis results may rightfully ask ‘what is the confidence in the results?’ In the paper a linkage between a variable’s information- and confidence-level is shown where a higher information-level is coupled with a lower confidence-level for LPHC events. This suggests one way of dealing with confidence: a risk analysis result may be presented with lower information but with higher confidence. If such a trade-off is not possible, or does not solve the problem regarding confidence, basic management strategies related to ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ confidence levels are proposed to guide the decision-maker. The paper ends with the conjecture that a three-level confidence scale is enough for grading the confidence in risk analysis results related to LPHC events.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationSafety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017
    Subtitle of host publicationTheory and Applications
    EditorsMarko Cepin, Radim Briš
    Place of PublicationLondon
    PublisherCRC Press
    Pages1125-1130
    Number of pages6
    ISBN (Electronic)978-1-315-21046-9
    ISBN (Print)978-1-138-62937-0
    Publication statusPublished - 2017
    MoE publication typeNot Eligible
    Event27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017 - Portoroz, Slovenia
    Duration: 18 Jun 201722 Jun 2017

    Conference

    Conference27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017
    Abbreviated titleESREL 2017
    CountrySlovenia
    CityPortoroz
    Period18/06/1722/06/17

    Fingerprint

    Confidence
    Risk analysis
    Empirical evidence
    Trade-offs
    Management strategy
    Grading
    Decision maker
    Linkage
    Expert judgment

    Cite this

    Rosqvist, T. (2017). Information and confidence levels in risk results: Can both be obtained? In M. Cepin, & R. Briš (Eds.), Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017: Theory and Applications (pp. 1125-1130). London: CRC Press.
    Rosqvist, Tony. / Information and confidence levels in risk results : Can both be obtained?. Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017: Theory and Applications. editor / Marko Cepin ; Radim Briš. London : CRC Press, 2017. pp. 1125-1130
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    title = "Information and confidence levels in risk results: Can both be obtained?",
    abstract = "Validation and confidence in risk analysis results are difficult to achieve for Low Probability–High Consequence (LPHC) events. By definition, such events do not provide empirical evidence and hence expert judgments are used in deriving probability measures regarding the occurrences and consequences of such events. The more complicated the risk analysis is in terms of model structure, parameters, variables, and assumptions, the more judgments are needed. The user of the risk analysis results may rightfully ask ‘what is the confidence in the results?’ In the paper a linkage between a variable’s information- and confidence-level is shown where a higher information-level is coupled with a lower confidence-level for LPHC events. This suggests one way of dealing with confidence: a risk analysis result may be presented with lower information but with higher confidence. If such a trade-off is not possible, or does not solve the problem regarding confidence, basic management strategies related to ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ confidence levels are proposed to guide the decision-maker. The paper ends with the conjecture that a three-level confidence scale is enough for grading the confidence in risk analysis results related to LPHC events.",
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    Rosqvist, T 2017, Information and confidence levels in risk results: Can both be obtained? in M Cepin & R Briš (eds), Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017: Theory and Applications. CRC Press, London, pp. 1125-1130, 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017, Portoroz, Slovenia, 18/06/17.

    Information and confidence levels in risk results : Can both be obtained? / Rosqvist, Tony.

    Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017: Theory and Applications. ed. / Marko Cepin; Radim Briš. London : CRC Press, 2017. p. 1125-1130.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

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    AB - Validation and confidence in risk analysis results are difficult to achieve for Low Probability–High Consequence (LPHC) events. By definition, such events do not provide empirical evidence and hence expert judgments are used in deriving probability measures regarding the occurrences and consequences of such events. The more complicated the risk analysis is in terms of model structure, parameters, variables, and assumptions, the more judgments are needed. The user of the risk analysis results may rightfully ask ‘what is the confidence in the results?’ In the paper a linkage between a variable’s information- and confidence-level is shown where a higher information-level is coupled with a lower confidence-level for LPHC events. This suggests one way of dealing with confidence: a risk analysis result may be presented with lower information but with higher confidence. If such a trade-off is not possible, or does not solve the problem regarding confidence, basic management strategies related to ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ confidence levels are proposed to guide the decision-maker. The paper ends with the conjecture that a three-level confidence scale is enough for grading the confidence in risk analysis results related to LPHC events.

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    Rosqvist T. Information and confidence levels in risk results: Can both be obtained? In Cepin M, Briš R, editors, Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications - Proceedings of the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2017: Theory and Applications. London: CRC Press. 2017. p. 1125-1130