Integrated scenario modelling of energy, greenhouse gas emissions and forestry

Riikka Siljander, Tommi Ekholm

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Preventing dangerous climate change requires actions on several sectors. Mitigation strategies have focused primarily on energy, because fossil fuels are the main source of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Another important sector recently gaining more attention is the forest sector. Deforestation is responsible for approximately one fifth of the global emissions, while growing forests sequester and store significant amounts of carbon. Because energy and forest sectors and climate change are highly interlinked, their interactions need to be analysed in an integrated framework in order to better understand the consequences of different actions and policies, and find the most effective means to reduce emissions. This paper presents a model, which integrates energy use, forests and greenhouse gas emissions and describes the most important linkages between them. The model is applied for the case of Finland, where integrated analyses are of particular importance due to the abundant forest resources, major forest carbon sink and strong linkage with the energy sector. However, the results and their implications are discussed in a broader perspective. The results demonstrate how full integration of all net emissions into climate policy could increase the economic efficiency of climate change mitigation. Our numerical scenarios showed that enhancing forest carbon sinks would be a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy than using forests for bioenergy production, which would imply a lower sink. However, as forest carbon stock projections involve large uncertainties, their full integration to emission targets can introduce new and notable risks for mitigation strategies.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)783-802
Number of pages20
JournalMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Volume23
Issue number5
Early online date2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018
MoE publication typeNot Eligible

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forestry
greenhouse gas
modeling
energy
mitigation
carbon sink
climate change
carbon
bioenergy
forest resource
energy use
environmental policy
deforestation
fossil fuel
economics
cost

Keywords

  • carbon sink
  • climate change mitigation
  • energy systems
  • forests
  • scenario analysis

Cite this

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title = "Integrated scenario modelling of energy, greenhouse gas emissions and forestry",
abstract = "Preventing dangerous climate change requires actions on several sectors. Mitigation strategies have focused primarily on energy, because fossil fuels are the main source of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Another important sector recently gaining more attention is the forest sector. Deforestation is responsible for approximately one fifth of the global emissions, while growing forests sequester and store significant amounts of carbon. Because energy and forest sectors and climate change are highly interlinked, their interactions need to be analysed in an integrated framework in order to better understand the consequences of different actions and policies, and find the most effective means to reduce emissions. This paper presents a model, which integrates energy use, forests and greenhouse gas emissions and describes the most important linkages between them. The model is applied for the case of Finland, where integrated analyses are of particular importance due to the abundant forest resources, major forest carbon sink and strong linkage with the energy sector. However, the results and their implications are discussed in a broader perspective. The results demonstrate how full integration of all net emissions into climate policy could increase the economic efficiency of climate change mitigation. Our numerical scenarios showed that enhancing forest carbon sinks would be a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy than using forests for bioenergy production, which would imply a lower sink. However, as forest carbon stock projections involve large uncertainties, their full integration to emission targets can introduce new and notable risks for mitigation strategies.",
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Integrated scenario modelling of energy, greenhouse gas emissions and forestry. / Siljander, Riikka; Ekholm, Tommi.

In: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 23, No. 5, 2018, p. 783-802.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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