Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies

Raija Koivisto (Corresponding Author), Nina Wessberg, Annele Eerola, Toni Ahlqvist, Sirkku Kivisaari, Jouko Myllyoja, Minna Halonen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

28 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1163-1176
Number of pages14
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume76
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed
EventThe 3rd International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference - Seville, Spain
Duration: 16 Oct 200817 Oct 2008

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Biomedical Technology Assessment
Risk assessment
Technology
Critical infrastructures
Climate Change
Methodology
Climate change
Uncertainty

Keywords

  • Foresight methodology
  • Risk analysis
  • Risk assessment
  • Roadmapping
  • Technology analysis
  • Technology assessment

Cite this

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title = "Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies",
abstract = "This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.",
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Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies. / Koivisto, Raija (Corresponding Author); Wessberg, Nina; Eerola, Annele; Ahlqvist, Toni; Kivisaari, Sirkku; Myllyoja, Jouko; Halonen, Minna.

In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 76, No. 9, 2009, p. 1163-1176.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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AU - Koivisto, Raija

AU - Wessberg, Nina

AU - Eerola, Annele

AU - Ahlqvist, Toni

AU - Kivisaari, Sirkku

AU - Myllyoja, Jouko

AU - Halonen, Minna

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AB - This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.

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