Leveraging the transition to strategic capitalism: A summary of a Delphi expert-opinion study

Fractured geopolitics, shifting alliances, and growing systemic uncertainty define the environment in which Finland must now build and sustain its innovation resilience. This Delphi study was launched to explore how Finland, and Europe more broadly, can navigate these evolving conditions in order to foster a more robust and future-proof innovation system.

The findings from the study revealed three interlinked layers of insight: external vulnerabilities, internal capabilities, and strategic positioning. Together, these layers form the underlying structure of this policy brief.

The deck begins by outlining both internal and external vulnerabilities shaping Finland’s innovation environment. These range from the erosion of geopolitical trust and increasing threats to talent flows, to the growing dominance of China across critical technologies and value chains. These developments are not merely weak signals or short-term disruptions; rather, they represent structural conditions that fundamentally shape the global playing field for innovation.

The middle section highlights an emerging shift from laissez-faire approaches toward what experts increasingly describe as strategic capitalism. Respondents emphasized the importance of not only investing in R&D, but also improving the capacity to absorb and deploy it effectively. They pointed to the need for stronger coordination across policy silos and a move away from episodic interventions toward more sustained, long-term innovation strategies. The discussion of industrial, technology, and innovation policy underscores a central message: ambition alone is insufficient without coherence.

The final part of the deck repositions Finland’s innovation system firmly within the European framework. Experts stressed Finland’s growing dependency on EU-level instruments, particularly in funding, regulation, and standard setting, highlighted its potential role in helping to shape Europe’s global technological posture. At the same time, they noted that Finland must remain agile, sharpen its priorities, and engage strategically in Brussels to ensure influence rather than passivity.

Across the study, it became clear that resilience should not be understood as a single policy choice or an isolated strategy. Instead, it represents a deeper structural shift in how innovation systems are organized and governed. This deck translates that insight into a coherent narrative - one that begins with risk, moves through leverage, and ultimately points toward action.