Liikenteen energiatehokkuustoimenpiteet osana EU:n 2030 ilmasto- ja energiatavoitteiden saavuttamista: vaikutukset, kustannukset ja työnjako

The European Commission has proposed an EU-level climate and energy target for the year 2030 to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 40% compared to 1990 levels. The overall target is shared between a 43% reduction by sectors covered in the EU emission trading system (EU ETS) and a 30% reduction by non-ETS sectors (including transport) compared to 2005 levels. The latter target will be defined separately for each Member State. For Finland, an emissions reduction target up to 36% has been projected. This study examined energy efficiency measures of the transport sector in terms of transport relat-ed feasibility (changes in transport volumes, modal shares), economic feasibility (investment and exter-nal costs) and GHG reduction potential. The feasibility factors constitute the preconditions for transport emission reduction potential in Finland and consequently also for reaching the EU-level target. Second-ly, the study assessed the impacts of the measures on transport safety and public health. Finally, the roles and responsibilities of municipalities and the state in implementation and financing of the energy efficiency measures were analysed. Energy efficiency measures, identified in this context, include six categories of measures: (1) pro-motion of public transport in urban areas, (2) promotion of public transport over long distances, (3) pro-motion of walking and cycling, (4) measures related to the urban form development, (5) promotion of alternative propulsion for road transport and (6) promotion of low-emission passenger cars. The results of the study show that public transport, walking and cycling measures integrated in ur-ban transport plans of large and medium-sized cities in Finland hold approximately a 30% CO2 emission reduction potential between 2014 and 2030. This would indicate GHG emission reduction of approx. 0.6 million tons. The assessment covers both the impacts of modal shift and technological development of vehicles and fuels. Measures promoting public transport, walking and cycling are however not particularly cost-effective, if considered exclusively from the climate policy perspective. In fact, emission reductions of these measures are rather achieved as a positive by-product of essential transport system development (e.g. rail line or bicycle lane infrastructure investments). Based on the study, promotion of public transport would seem to reduce traffic accidents in urban areas, but an increase in walking and cycling to increase them. The safety of walking and cycling is strongly dependent on the types of routes the new transport volumes are directed to and the intensity of the growth. Public health benefits of walking and cycling are high and affect therefore significantly the economic efficiency of the planned measures and the costs of CO2 emission reductions. Long-distance public transport between the largest cities in Finland is currently undergoing signifi-cant changes both in pricing and supply as a result of changes in the legislation at national and EU-level. New operating models and services in public transport supply have emerged, and the development con-tinues. For the first time in decades the use of public transport is more affordable than the use of a pas-senger car. Between the major urban areas there is potential with modal and market shifts for the benefit of public transport. Assuming that about 1.5% of long-distance trips made by private car would shift to public transport, 0.5 million tons of GHG emissions could be reduced between 2014 and 2030. Also this estimate includes the technology development dimension. Urbanisation and population growth in growing urban regions reduce the average mobility need of the population in the future. Based on the zonal approach analysis, reductions in the average car-kilometres can be reached, if the new housing development will adhere to zones where daily trips can be made on foot, by bike or by public transport. Through the measures related to the urban form develop-ment, it is possible to reduce the amount of daily passenger-kilometres by approximately 6%, the impact of which is around 3 - 4% (ca. 0.2 million tons) on CO2 emissions of domestic passenger transport. Infill development is one of the most powerful measures related to urban form. It can affect both new housing locations and creation of conditions for improved public transport services. Economic in-struments (e.g. tax deductions on commuting and road pricing) can significantly affect the location decisions of residents and companies as well as their mobility behaviour. It is essential that urban form supports transport measures in reducing emissions by enabling sustainable mobility choices and services. On the basis of economic modelling, domestically produced biofuels are economically the most favourable option of the future alternative propulsion in road transport. Biofuels do not limit economic growth, their emission reduction potential is large and the economic value of emission reduction covers the incurred costs of subsidies to biofuel product development, production and distribution chain. The maximal CO2 reduction of biofuels is estimated up to more than 5 million tons (2015 to 2030), which makes them more cost-effective (if considered exclusively from the climate policy perspective) than measures promoting public transport, walking and cycling. CO2 limit values for new cars set by the EU legislation and national CO2-based vehicle taxes have also been cost-effective measures. Because of them, fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of Finnish car fleet have decreased since 2008. Planning and preparation of energy efficiency measures is often agreed between the state and mu-nicipalities e.g. through legislation, but challenges have been identified in their implementation. Exam-ples of these are national-level strategies, implementation of which requires shared funding. In case the other party lacks funding, or funding is delayed, the projects will be postponed or not realised at all. Also deficiencies in instructions to municipalities on the implementation of energy efficiency measures (e.g. directive on the procurement of clean vehicles) can slow down or even prevent the realisation of the pro-jects. The projected EU non-ETS sectors emissions reduction target (-36% by 2030) would mean a re-duction of CO2 emissions of transport by 4.6 million tonnes from the 2005 level in Finland. Based on the results above, measures promoting public transport, walking, cycling and urban form development could possibly cover approx. 28% (1.3 million tonnes, 2014-2030) of the total reduction target. The contribution is clearly less than the contribution of road traffic vehicle fleet and fuel technology measures (approx. 5 million tonnes reduction, 2014-2030), but its value should not be underestimated because of other benefits to be achieved. These include positive impacts on congestion, air quality, road safety and also to a significant extent on public health. Technology measures contribute to, through new fleet and fuel alternatives, the effectiveness of other energy efficiency measures, and consequently the different types of measures complement each other in achieving the goals of sustainable urban mobility.