Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys

Translated title of the contribution: Long-term development of total emissions

Tiina Koljonen, Sampo Soimakallio, Antti Lehtilä, Lassi Similä, Juha Honkatukia, Mikael Hildén, Antti Rehunen, Laura Saikku, Marja Salo, Mikko Savolahti, Pekka Tuominen, Terttu Vainio

Research output: Book/ReportReport

Abstract

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd and the Finnish Environment Institute SYKE carried out the PITKO project (long-term development of total emissions) to examine suitable targets for the greenhouse gas emission reduction until 2050 and to identify key actions within different sectors. The starting point was given by the ministerial working group on bioeconomy and clean solutions, which had specified that Finland should reduce emissions by 85–90% relative to emissions in 1990. For the land-use sector (LULUCF) no specific targets were set. The total emissions were calculated based on projected emissions and changes in the development of removals by carbon sinks.
The results show that Finland can achieve the 85–95% emission reduction target by 2050 through different pathways. Critical factors are the increase in efficiency in energy use throughout society, a significant increase in the use of renewable energy, electrification of the energy system, and the possibility to use carbon capture and storage (CCS) in bioenergy production and industrial processes. All analysed pathways show that economic welfare measured by GDP will increase. Technological development is the most important driver behind the growth. Finland can achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 or later, depending on the pathway and uncertainties in the evolution of carbon sinks. To achieve the target it is important that Finland reduces emissions and maintains and strengthens carbon sinks.
Original languageFinnish
PublisherPrime Minister's Office Finland
Commissioning bodyPrime Minister's Office Finland
Number of pages162
ISBN (Electronic)978-952-287-656-0
Publication statusPublished - 28 Feb 2019
MoE publication typeD4 Published development or research report or study

Publication series

SeriesValtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja
Number24/2019
ISSN2342-6799

Fingerprint

carbon sink
welfare economics
electrification
technological development
carbon
bioenergy
energy use
Gross Domestic Product
energy
greenhouse gas
land use
emission reduction

Keywords

  • low emission
  • strategy
  • scenarios
  • emission reduction

Cite this

Koljonen, T., Soimakallio, S., Lehtilä, A., Similä, L., Honkatukia, J., Hildén, M., ... Vainio, T. (2019). Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys. Prime Minister's Office Finland. Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja, No. 24/2019
Koljonen, Tiina ; Soimakallio, Sampo ; Lehtilä, Antti ; Similä, Lassi ; Honkatukia, Juha ; Hildén, Mikael ; Rehunen, Antti ; Saikku, Laura ; Salo, Marja ; Savolahti, Mikko ; Tuominen, Pekka ; Vainio, Terttu. / Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys. Prime Minister's Office Finland, 2019. 162 p. (Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja; No. 24/2019).
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keywords = "low emission, strategy, scenarios, emission reduction",
author = "Tiina Koljonen and Sampo Soimakallio and Antti Lehtil{\"a} and Lassi Simil{\"a} and Juha Honkatukia and Mikael Hild{\'e}n and Antti Rehunen and Laura Saikku and Marja Salo and Mikko Savolahti and Pekka Tuominen and Terttu Vainio",
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Koljonen, T, Soimakallio, S, Lehtilä, A, Similä, L, Honkatukia, J, Hildén, M, Rehunen, A, Saikku, L, Salo, M, Savolahti, M, Tuominen, P & Vainio, T 2019, Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys. Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja, no. 24/2019, Prime Minister's Office Finland.

Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys. / Koljonen, Tiina; Soimakallio, Sampo; Lehtilä, Antti; Similä, Lassi; Honkatukia, Juha; Hildén, Mikael; Rehunen, Antti; Saikku, Laura; Salo, Marja; Savolahti, Mikko; Tuominen, Pekka; Vainio, Terttu.

Prime Minister's Office Finland, 2019. 162 p. (Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja; No. 24/2019).

Research output: Book/ReportReport

TY - BOOK

T1 - Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys

AU - Koljonen, Tiina

AU - Soimakallio, Sampo

AU - Lehtilä, Antti

AU - Similä, Lassi

AU - Honkatukia, Juha

AU - Hildén, Mikael

AU - Rehunen, Antti

AU - Saikku, Laura

AU - Salo, Marja

AU - Savolahti, Mikko

AU - Tuominen, Pekka

AU - Vainio, Terttu

PY - 2019/2/28

Y1 - 2019/2/28

N2 - VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd and the Finnish Environment Institute SYKE carried out the PITKO project (long-term development of total emissions) to examine suitable targets for the greenhouse gas emission reduction until 2050 and to identify key actions within different sectors. The starting point was given by the ministerial working group on bioeconomy and clean solutions, which had specified that Finland should reduce emissions by 85–90% relative to emissions in 1990. For the land-use sector (LULUCF) no specific targets were set. The total emissions were calculated based on projected emissions and changes in the development of removals by carbon sinks. The results show that Finland can achieve the 85–95% emission reduction target by 2050 through different pathways. Critical factors are the increase in efficiency in energy use throughout society, a significant increase in the use of renewable energy, electrification of the energy system, and the possibility to use carbon capture and storage (CCS) in bioenergy production and industrial processes. All analysed pathways show that economic welfare measured by GDP will increase. Technological development is the most important driver behind the growth. Finland can achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 or later, depending on the pathway and uncertainties in the evolution of carbon sinks. To achieve the target it is important that Finland reduces emissions and maintains and strengthens carbon sinks.

AB - VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd and the Finnish Environment Institute SYKE carried out the PITKO project (long-term development of total emissions) to examine suitable targets for the greenhouse gas emission reduction until 2050 and to identify key actions within different sectors. The starting point was given by the ministerial working group on bioeconomy and clean solutions, which had specified that Finland should reduce emissions by 85–90% relative to emissions in 1990. For the land-use sector (LULUCF) no specific targets were set. The total emissions were calculated based on projected emissions and changes in the development of removals by carbon sinks. The results show that Finland can achieve the 85–95% emission reduction target by 2050 through different pathways. Critical factors are the increase in efficiency in energy use throughout society, a significant increase in the use of renewable energy, electrification of the energy system, and the possibility to use carbon capture and storage (CCS) in bioenergy production and industrial processes. All analysed pathways show that economic welfare measured by GDP will increase. Technological development is the most important driver behind the growth. Finland can achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 or later, depending on the pathway and uncertainties in the evolution of carbon sinks. To achieve the target it is important that Finland reduces emissions and maintains and strengthens carbon sinks.

KW - low emission

KW - strategy

KW - scenarios

KW - emission reduction

M3 - Report

T3 - Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja

BT - Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys

PB - Prime Minister's Office Finland

ER -

Koljonen T, Soimakallio S, Lehtilä A, Similä L, Honkatukia J, Hildén M et al. Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys. Prime Minister's Office Finland, 2019. 162 p. (Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja; No. 24/2019).