Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys

Translated title of the contribution: Long-term development of total emissions

Tiina Koljonen, Sampo Soimakallio, Antti Lehtilä, Lassi Similä, Juha Honkatukia, Mikael Hildén, Antti Rehunen, Laura Saikku, Marja Salo, Mikko Savolahti, Pekka Tuominen, Terttu Vainio

    Research output: Book/ReportReport

    Abstract

    VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd and the Finnish Environment Institute SYKE carried out the PITKO project (long-term development of total emissions) to examine suitable targets for the greenhouse gas emission reduction until 2050 and to identify key actions within different sectors. The starting point was given by the ministerial working group on bioeconomy and clean solutions, which had specified that Finland should reduce emissions by 85–90% relative to emissions in 1990. For the land-use sector (LULUCF) no specific targets were set. The total emissions were calculated based on projected emissions and changes in the development of removals by carbon sinks.
    The results show that Finland can achieve the 85–95% emission reduction target by 2050 through different pathways. Critical factors are the increase in efficiency in energy use throughout society, a significant increase in the use of renewable energy, electrification of the energy system, and the possibility to use carbon capture and storage (CCS) in bioenergy production and industrial processes. All analysed pathways show that economic welfare measured by GDP will increase. Technological development is the most important driver behind the growth. Finland can achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 or later, depending on the pathway and uncertainties in the evolution of carbon sinks. To achieve the target it is important that Finland reduces emissions and maintains and strengthens carbon sinks.
    Original languageFinnish
    PublisherPrime Minister's Office Finland
    Commissioning bodyPrime Minister's Office Finland
    Number of pages162
    ISBN (Electronic)978-952-287-656-0
    Publication statusPublished - 28 Feb 2019
    MoE publication typeD4 Published development or research report or study

    Publication series

    SeriesValtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja
    Number24/2019
    ISSN2342-6799

    Fingerprint

    carbon sink
    welfare economics
    electrification
    technological development
    carbon
    bioenergy
    energy use
    Gross Domestic Product
    energy
    greenhouse gas
    land use
    emission reduction

    Keywords

    • low emission
    • strategy
    • scenarios
    • emission reduction

    Cite this

    Koljonen, T., Soimakallio, S., Lehtilä, A., Similä, L., Honkatukia, J., Hildén, M., ... Vainio, T. (2019). Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys. Prime Minister's Office Finland. Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja, No. 24/2019
    Koljonen, Tiina ; Soimakallio, Sampo ; Lehtilä, Antti ; Similä, Lassi ; Honkatukia, Juha ; Hildén, Mikael ; Rehunen, Antti ; Saikku, Laura ; Salo, Marja ; Savolahti, Mikko ; Tuominen, Pekka ; Vainio, Terttu. / Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys. Prime Minister's Office Finland, 2019. 162 p. (Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja; No. 24/2019).
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    abstract = "VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd and the Finnish Environment Institute SYKE carried out the PITKO project (long-term development of total emissions) to examine suitable targets for the greenhouse gas emission reduction until 2050 and to identify key actions within different sectors. The starting point was given by the ministerial working group on bioeconomy and clean solutions, which had specified that Finland should reduce emissions by 85–90{\%} relative to emissions in 1990. For the land-use sector (LULUCF) no specific targets were set. The total emissions were calculated based on projected emissions and changes in the development of removals by carbon sinks. The results show that Finland can achieve the 85–95{\%} emission reduction target by 2050 through different pathways. Critical factors are the increase in efficiency in energy use throughout society, a significant increase in the use of renewable energy, electrification of the energy system, and the possibility to use carbon capture and storage (CCS) in bioenergy production and industrial processes. All analysed pathways show that economic welfare measured by GDP will increase. Technological development is the most important driver behind the growth. Finland can achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 or later, depending on the pathway and uncertainties in the evolution of carbon sinks. To achieve the target it is important that Finland reduces emissions and maintains and strengthens carbon sinks.",
    keywords = "low emission, strategy, scenarios, emission reduction",
    author = "Tiina Koljonen and Sampo Soimakallio and Antti Lehtil{\"a} and Lassi Simil{\"a} and Juha Honkatukia and Mikael Hild{\'e}n and Antti Rehunen and Laura Saikku and Marja Salo and Mikko Savolahti and Pekka Tuominen and Terttu Vainio",
    year = "2019",
    month = "2",
    day = "28",
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    series = "Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja",
    publisher = "Prime Minister's Office Finland",
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    Koljonen, T, Soimakallio, S, Lehtilä, A, Similä, L, Honkatukia, J, Hildén, M, Rehunen, A, Saikku, L, Salo, M, Savolahti, M, Tuominen, P & Vainio, T 2019, Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys. Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja, no. 24/2019, Prime Minister's Office Finland.

    Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys. / Koljonen, Tiina; Soimakallio, Sampo; Lehtilä, Antti; Similä, Lassi; Honkatukia, Juha; Hildén, Mikael; Rehunen, Antti; Saikku, Laura; Salo, Marja; Savolahti, Mikko; Tuominen, Pekka; Vainio, Terttu.

    Prime Minister's Office Finland, 2019. 162 p. (Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja; No. 24/2019).

    Research output: Book/ReportReport

    TY - BOOK

    T1 - Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys

    AU - Koljonen, Tiina

    AU - Soimakallio, Sampo

    AU - Lehtilä, Antti

    AU - Similä, Lassi

    AU - Honkatukia, Juha

    AU - Hildén, Mikael

    AU - Rehunen, Antti

    AU - Saikku, Laura

    AU - Salo, Marja

    AU - Savolahti, Mikko

    AU - Tuominen, Pekka

    AU - Vainio, Terttu

    PY - 2019/2/28

    Y1 - 2019/2/28

    N2 - VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd and the Finnish Environment Institute SYKE carried out the PITKO project (long-term development of total emissions) to examine suitable targets for the greenhouse gas emission reduction until 2050 and to identify key actions within different sectors. The starting point was given by the ministerial working group on bioeconomy and clean solutions, which had specified that Finland should reduce emissions by 85–90% relative to emissions in 1990. For the land-use sector (LULUCF) no specific targets were set. The total emissions were calculated based on projected emissions and changes in the development of removals by carbon sinks. The results show that Finland can achieve the 85–95% emission reduction target by 2050 through different pathways. Critical factors are the increase in efficiency in energy use throughout society, a significant increase in the use of renewable energy, electrification of the energy system, and the possibility to use carbon capture and storage (CCS) in bioenergy production and industrial processes. All analysed pathways show that economic welfare measured by GDP will increase. Technological development is the most important driver behind the growth. Finland can achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 or later, depending on the pathway and uncertainties in the evolution of carbon sinks. To achieve the target it is important that Finland reduces emissions and maintains and strengthens carbon sinks.

    AB - VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd and the Finnish Environment Institute SYKE carried out the PITKO project (long-term development of total emissions) to examine suitable targets for the greenhouse gas emission reduction until 2050 and to identify key actions within different sectors. The starting point was given by the ministerial working group on bioeconomy and clean solutions, which had specified that Finland should reduce emissions by 85–90% relative to emissions in 1990. For the land-use sector (LULUCF) no specific targets were set. The total emissions were calculated based on projected emissions and changes in the development of removals by carbon sinks. The results show that Finland can achieve the 85–95% emission reduction target by 2050 through different pathways. Critical factors are the increase in efficiency in energy use throughout society, a significant increase in the use of renewable energy, electrification of the energy system, and the possibility to use carbon capture and storage (CCS) in bioenergy production and industrial processes. All analysed pathways show that economic welfare measured by GDP will increase. Technological development is the most important driver behind the growth. Finland can achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 or later, depending on the pathway and uncertainties in the evolution of carbon sinks. To achieve the target it is important that Finland reduces emissions and maintains and strengthens carbon sinks.

    KW - low emission

    KW - strategy

    KW - scenarios

    KW - emission reduction

    M3 - Report

    T3 - Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja

    BT - Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys

    PB - Prime Minister's Office Finland

    ER -

    Koljonen T, Soimakallio S, Lehtilä A, Similä L, Honkatukia J, Hildén M et al. Pitkän aikavälin kokonaispäästökehitys. Prime Minister's Office Finland, 2019. 162 p. (Valtioneuvoston selvitys- ja tutkimustoiminnan julkaisusarja; No. 24/2019).