Long-term scenarios and energy system impacts of technological carbon dioxide removal deployment in Finland

This study analyzed energy system impacts of technological carbon dioxide removal (CDR) deployment in Finland. We modeled long-term scenarios up to 2050 for four CDR technologies: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), biochar soil amendment, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), and enhanced weathering of mining rock waste (EW). An integrated energy economic model compiled using the TIMES-model generator was used to produce cost-minimal development scenarios for Finland’s energy system, including CDR technologies. Three scenarios were modeled: one without a specific CDR target and two with low- and high CDR targets. The results show that CDR targets primarily affect the deployment of biochar, BECCS, and DACCS, whereas EW potential was fully utilized in all scenarios. Most of the growth in the CDR deployment originated from DACCS, while BECCS and biochar remained relatively insensitive to the CDR targets. The limited availability of sustainable biomass and its allocation across competing sectors played a central role in shaping the complex interactions between BECCS, biochar, and DACCS in the Finnish energy system. Regarding national net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the findings indicate that the net-zero GHG target is more easily achieved under any binding CDR target than without one. However, substantial CDR deployment would still be required for Finland to achieve climate neutrality even by 2050. The impacts of CDR technologies extend more broadly throughout the energy system than shown in earlier studies due to interconnections between the energy-consuming and producing sectors.