Marked point process framework for living probabilistic safety assessment and risk follow-up

Jan Holmberg, Elja Arjas

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We construct a model for living probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) by applying the general framework of marked point processes.
The framework provides a theoretically rigorous approach for considering risk follow-up of posterior hazards. In risk follow-up, the hazard of core damage is evaluated synthetically at time points in the past, by using some observed events as logged history and combining it with re-evaluated potential hazards. There are several alternatives for doing this, of which we consider three here, calling them initiating event approach, hazard rate approach, and safety system approach. In addition, for a comparison, we consider a core damage hazard arising in risk monitoring.
Each of these four definitions draws attention to a particular aspect in risk assessment, and this is reflected in the behaviour of the consequent risk importance measures. Several alternative measures are again considered.
The concepts and definitions are illustrated by a numerical example.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)59-73
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume49
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1995
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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Hazards
Security systems
Risk assessment
Monitoring

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title = "Marked point process framework for living probabilistic safety assessment and risk follow-up",
abstract = "We construct a model for living probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) by applying the general framework of marked point processes. The framework provides a theoretically rigorous approach for considering risk follow-up of posterior hazards. In risk follow-up, the hazard of core damage is evaluated synthetically at time points in the past, by using some observed events as logged history and combining it with re-evaluated potential hazards. There are several alternatives for doing this, of which we consider three here, calling them initiating event approach, hazard rate approach, and safety system approach. In addition, for a comparison, we consider a core damage hazard arising in risk monitoring. Each of these four definitions draws attention to a particular aspect in risk assessment, and this is reflected in the behaviour of the consequent risk importance measures. Several alternative measures are again considered. The concepts and definitions are illustrated by a numerical example.",
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Marked point process framework for living probabilistic safety assessment and risk follow-up. / Holmberg, Jan; Arjas, Elja.

In: Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 49, No. 1, 1995, p. 59-73.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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