Method for the prediction of the effects on safety of traffic enforcement measures. PEPPER Deliverable 4b

A practical method for the prediction of the safety effects of enforcement measures was developed and its use demonstrated by real-life examples. The two main phases of the method concern the prediction of the effects of the measure on road user behaviour and the effects of the change in road user behaviour on accidents or injuries. The method is easy to understand and prediction proceeds step-by-step. The final output of the method is the number of accidents or injuries, which will be prevented if the measure is implemented. Intermediate results concern the definition of target behaviour (such as speeding, drink-driving or non-use of seat belts), estimation of the expected change in target behaviour and the estimation of the type and quantity of target accidents or injuries (for example injury accidents involving drink drivers or fatalities of car drivers and front seat passengers). The calculations can be made by using a simple pocket calculator or spreadsheet programme. All steps in the process are transparent so that recalculation is easy if part of the input data or functions is updated.