Modelling of Demands of Selected Minerals and Metals in Clean Energy Transition with 1.5–2.0 °C Mitigation Targets

Tackling climate change and the transition to a low-carbon energy system will especially increase the demand for certain minerals and metals, such as cobalt, copper, lithium and rare-earth elements. This raises questions about possible constraints to a clean energy system transition. Environmental and social concerns have also been raised about mining for these minerals in the Global South region. This chapter explores the future demand for selected minerals and metals in long-term scenarios for the global energy system until 2100. The climate policy pathways follow UNFCCC Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), extrapolated until 2100, and immediate action towards limiting warming to 1.5–2 °C. The scenarios have been modelled with the TIMES-VTT Integrated Assessment Model, which includes data on metal demands for renewable energy technologies, carbon capture and storage (CCS) power plant technologies (both fossil and bioenergy with CCS), nuclear power, battery technologies, electrolyzers, and electric vehicles. Our results suggest that to ensure affordable and clean energy access for all (SDG7) along with climate action (SDG13) the demand for mining activities in the Global South will increase rapidly, which raises concerns about inequalities between countries (SDG10). We need socially inclusive solutions and public-private partnerships to make sure that everyone benefits throughout the value chains. Human rights, safe working conditions, and the protection of the local environment in the Global South must be constantly audited to ensure a sustainable transition to clean energy systems.