TY - BOOK
T1 - Modelling of prevention and emergency operations for probabilistic risk analysis
AU - Karanta, Ilkka
N1 - Project code: 77378
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - Prevention and emergency (P&E) operations are
fast-response operations to prevent damage, mitigate its
consequences, or recover from it. This report presents an
approach to
such activities based on methods presented in the project
management literature, more particularly on activity
networks. There are many operations relevant to nuclear
safety that may be considered as P&E operations, e.g.
recovery from a loss of coolant accident (LOCA),
construction of flood dams to prevent rising sea water
from entering NPP facilities, and fire extinguishing. It
is tedious to model such operations as a part of a
probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) model, such as an event
tree, and many simplifications may be needed. Modelling
P&E operations separately allows their more explicit
treatment. The results, such as success probability of
the operation, may be integrated into the main PRA model
in the manner that the results of human reliability
analysis (HRA) are currently integrated. Within project
management research, many methods and formalisms have
been developed to model and analyse schedule risks, and
traditional PRA methods, coupled with project management
models, can be used to analyse performance (quality of
end product) risks. These are the main risks associated
with P&E operations in the nuclear safety setting. An
illustrative example, the installation of booms to
prevent oil spillage from entering NPP feedwater system,
is presented. Future research is needed e.g. on the
modelling of plan changes, and on the modelling of
schedule risks when resources available for the P&E
operation are constrained. Practical experience in the
risk analysis of P&E operations is also needed.
AB - Prevention and emergency (P&E) operations are
fast-response operations to prevent damage, mitigate its
consequences, or recover from it. This report presents an
approach to
such activities based on methods presented in the project
management literature, more particularly on activity
networks. There are many operations relevant to nuclear
safety that may be considered as P&E operations, e.g.
recovery from a loss of coolant accident (LOCA),
construction of flood dams to prevent rising sea water
from entering NPP facilities, and fire extinguishing. It
is tedious to model such operations as a part of a
probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) model, such as an event
tree, and many simplifications may be needed. Modelling
P&E operations separately allows their more explicit
treatment. The results, such as success probability of
the operation, may be integrated into the main PRA model
in the manner that the results of human reliability
analysis (HRA) are currently integrated. Within project
management research, many methods and formalisms have
been developed to model and analyse schedule risks, and
traditional PRA methods, coupled with project management
models, can be used to analyse performance (quality of
end product) risks. These are the main risks associated
with P&E operations in the nuclear safety setting. An
illustrative example, the installation of booms to
prevent oil spillage from entering NPP feedwater system,
is presented. Future research is needed e.g. on the
modelling of plan changes, and on the modelling of
schedule risks when resources available for the P&E
operation are constrained. Practical experience in the
risk analysis of P&E operations is also needed.
KW - nuclear power plants
KW - project management
KW - emergency operations
KW - activity networks
M3 - Report
T3 - VTT Research Report
BT - Modelling of prevention and emergency operations for probabilistic risk analysis
PB - VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
CY - Espoo
ER -