Modelling of prevention and emergency operations for probabilistic risk analysis

    Research output: Book/ReportReport


    Prevention and emergency (P&E) operations are fast-response operations to prevent damage, mitigate its consequences, or recover from it. This report presents an approach to such activities based on methods presented in the project management literature, more particularly on activity networks. There are many operations relevant to nuclear safety that may be considered as P&E operations, e.g. recovery from a loss of coolant accident (LOCA), construction of flood dams to prevent rising sea water from entering NPP facilities, and fire extinguishing. It is tedious to model such operations as a part of a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) model, such as an event tree, and many simplifications may be needed. Modelling P&E operations separately allows their more explicit treatment. The results, such as success probability of the operation, may be integrated into the main PRA model in the manner that the results of human reliability analysis (HRA) are currently integrated. Within project management research, many methods and formalisms have been developed to model and analyse schedule risks, and traditional PRA methods, coupled with project management models, can be used to analyse performance (quality of end product) risks. These are the main risks associated with P&E operations in the nuclear safety setting. An illustrative example, the installation of booms to prevent oil spillage from entering NPP feedwater system, is presented. Future research is needed e.g. on the modelling of plan changes, and on the modelling of schedule risks when resources available for the P&E operation are constrained. Practical experience in the risk analysis of P&E operations is also needed.
    Original languageEnglish
    Place of PublicationEspoo
    PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
    Number of pages33
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    MoE publication typeD4 Published development or research report or study

    Publication series

    SeriesVTT Research Report


    • nuclear power plants
    • project management
    • emergency operations
    • activity networks


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