Modelling of prevention and emergency operations for probabilistic risk analysis

Research output: Book/ReportReportProfessional

Abstract

Prevention and emergency (P&E) operations are fast-response operations to prevent damage, mitigate its consequences, or recover from it. This report presents an approach to such activities based on methods presented in the project management literature, more particularly on activity networks. There are many operations relevant to nuclear safety that may be considered as P&E operations, e.g. recovery from a loss of coolant accident (LOCA), construction of flood dams to prevent rising sea water from entering NPP facilities, and fire extinguishing. It is tedious to model such operations as a part of a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) model, such as an event tree, and many simplifications may be needed. Modelling P&E operations separately allows their more explicit treatment. The results, such as success probability of the operation, may be integrated into the main PRA model in the manner that the results of human reliability analysis (HRA) are currently integrated. Within project management research, many methods and formalisms have been developed to model and analyse schedule risks, and traditional PRA methods, coupled with project management models, can be used to analyse performance (quality of end product) risks. These are the main risks associated with P&E operations in the nuclear safety setting. An illustrative example, the installation of booms to prevent oil spillage from entering NPP feedwater system, is presented. Future research is needed e.g. on the modelling of plan changes, and on the modelling of schedule risks when resources available for the P&E operation are constrained. Practical experience in the risk analysis of P&E operations is also needed.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationEspoo
PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
Number of pages33
Publication statusPublished - 2014
MoE publication typeD4 Published development or research report or study

Publication series

NameResearch Report
PublisherVTT
VolumeVTT-R-01743-14

Fingerprint

Risk analysis
Project management
Loss of coolant accidents
Reliability analysis
Dams
Fires
Recovery
Water

Keywords

  • nuclear power plants
  • project management
  • emergency operations
  • activity networks

Cite this

Karanta, I. (2014). Modelling of prevention and emergency operations for probabilistic risk analysis. Espoo: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. VTT Research Report, Vol.. VTT-R-01743-14
Karanta, Ilkka. / Modelling of prevention and emergency operations for probabilistic risk analysis. Espoo : VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2014. 33 p. (VTT Research Report, Vol. VTT-R-01743-14).
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Karanta, I 2014, Modelling of prevention and emergency operations for probabilistic risk analysis. VTT Research Report, vol. VTT-R-01743-14, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo.

Modelling of prevention and emergency operations for probabilistic risk analysis. / Karanta, Ilkka.

Espoo : VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2014. 33 p. (VTT Research Report, Vol. VTT-R-01743-14).

Research output: Book/ReportReportProfessional

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Karanta I. Modelling of prevention and emergency operations for probabilistic risk analysis. Espoo: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2014. 33 p. (VTT Research Report, Vol. VTT-R-01743-14).