Modelling the growth response to climate change and management of Tectona grandis L. f. using the 3-PGmix model

Rajit Gupta; Laxmi Kant Sharma

doi:10.1007/s13595-021-01102-y

Modelling the growth response to climate change and management of Tectona grandis L. f. using the 3-PGmix model

Rajit Gupta, Laxmi Kant Sharma^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Not published at VTT

Central University of Rajasthan

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Key message: Teak (Tectona grandis L. f.) is a native tree species of India. It is one of the most desirable timber species because of its strength, fine texture, and durability. Its growth is strongly dependent on the climatic conditions, but empirical data are often unavailable to support management decisions. The physiological principles for predicting growth incorporated in the 3-PGmix model make it a useful tool in modelling the growth responses and management in the changing climate. We assessed that under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and no thinning, teak would store more carbon than currently. Context: Uncertainty and lack of scientific understanding about the growth response to climate change and thinning regimes have created challenges in teak sustainability, both regionally and globally. Aims: This research examines climate change and management implications on teak growth in India using the 3-PGmix model. Methods: The 3-PGmix model was coupled with climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) to forecast growth response up to the year 2100 with 1981–2010 as the baseline under thinning (G-quality, P-quality) regimes. Thinning under G-quality is performed at earlier stand age than P-quality, and then simulations under ‘no thinning’ based on stocking/ha at different thinning intensity. Results: Under ‘no thinning’, predicted net primary productivity (NPP) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 became 5.77 t/ha/year and 5.28 t/ha/year in 2100. However, under increasing CO₂, it became 7.39 t/ha/year and 8.22 t/ha/year respectively in 2100. In the future, increasing CO2 would be the dominating factor for an increase in teak growth; however, abnormal precipitation and warmer temperature could produce an unforeseen growth condition. The carbon stock and CO₂ sequestration are predicted to be higher under no thinning, which signifies the CO₂ fertilisation effect in teak. Conclusion: The set of parameters used in 3-PGmix offers an opportunity to predict teak responses to future climatic conditions and management treatments.

Original language	English
Article number	83
Journal	Annals of Forest Science
Volume	78
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-021-01102-y
Publication status	Published - Dec 2021
MoE publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

Funding

We are highly thankful to the Central University of Rajasthan for the DST-FIST-funded RS & GIS Lab in the Department of Environmental science. The first author is thankful to the University Grants Commission (UGC) for the UGC NET-JRF fellowship (Ref no. 3551/(NET-JAN2017) for financial support. We are also thankful to forest officials and field staff for their support during field surveys. Finally, we would like to thank the anonymous reviewers and editors for their important suggestions and comments. We are highly thankful to the Central University of Rajasthan for the DST-FIST-funded RS & GIS Lab in the Department of Environmental science. The first author is thankful to the University Grants Commission (UGC) for the UGC NET-JRF fellowship (Ref no. 3551/(NET-JAN2017) for financial support. We are also thankful to forest officials and field staff for their support during field surveys. Finally, we would like to thank the anonymous reviewers and editors for their important suggestions and comments.

Keywords

3-PGmix
Climate change
NPP
Process-based model
Sensitivity analysis
Teak

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1007/s13595-021-01102-y

Cite this

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title = "Modelling the growth response to climate change and management of Tectona grandis L. f. using the 3-PGmix model",

abstract = "Key message: Teak (Tectona grandis L. f.) is a native tree species of India. It is one of the most desirable timber species because of its strength, fine texture, and durability. Its growth is strongly dependent on the climatic conditions, but empirical data are often unavailable to support management decisions. The physiological principles for predicting growth incorporated in the 3-PGmix model make it a useful tool in modelling the growth responses and management in the changing climate. We assessed that under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and no thinning, teak would store more carbon than currently. Context: Uncertainty and lack of scientific understanding about the growth response to climate change and thinning regimes have created challenges in teak sustainability, both regionally and globally. Aims: This research examines climate change and management implications on teak growth in India using the 3-PGmix model. Methods: The 3-PGmix model was coupled with climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) to forecast growth response up to the year 2100 with 1981–2010 as the baseline under thinning (G-quality, P-quality) regimes. Thinning under G-quality is performed at earlier stand age than P-quality, and then simulations under {\textquoteleft}no thinning{\textquoteright} based on stocking/ha at different thinning intensity. Results: Under {\textquoteleft}no thinning{\textquoteright}, predicted net primary productivity (NPP) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 became 5.77 t/ha/year and 5.28 t/ha/year in 2100. However, under increasing CO2, it became 7.39 t/ha/year and 8.22 t/ha/year respectively in 2100. In the future, increasing CO2 would be the dominating factor for an increase in teak growth; however, abnormal precipitation and warmer temperature could produce an unforeseen growth condition. The carbon stock and CO2 sequestration are predicted to be higher under no thinning, which signifies the CO2 fertilisation effect in teak. Conclusion: The set of parameters used in 3-PGmix offers an opportunity to predict teak responses to future climatic conditions and management treatments.",

keywords = "3-PGmix, Climate change, NPP, Process-based model, Sensitivity analysis, Teak",

author = "Rajit Gupta and Sharma, \{Laxmi Kant\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, INRAE and Springer-Verlag France SAS, part of Springer Nature.",

year = "2021",

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doi = "10.1007/s13595-021-01102-y",

language = "English",

volume = "78",

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AU - Gupta, Rajit

AU - Sharma, Laxmi Kant

PY - 2021/12

Y1 - 2021/12

N2 - Key message: Teak (Tectona grandis L. f.) is a native tree species of India. It is one of the most desirable timber species because of its strength, fine texture, and durability. Its growth is strongly dependent on the climatic conditions, but empirical data are often unavailable to support management decisions. The physiological principles for predicting growth incorporated in the 3-PGmix model make it a useful tool in modelling the growth responses and management in the changing climate. We assessed that under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and no thinning, teak would store more carbon than currently. Context: Uncertainty and lack of scientific understanding about the growth response to climate change and thinning regimes have created challenges in teak sustainability, both regionally and globally. Aims: This research examines climate change and management implications on teak growth in India using the 3-PGmix model. Methods: The 3-PGmix model was coupled with climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) to forecast growth response up to the year 2100 with 1981–2010 as the baseline under thinning (G-quality, P-quality) regimes. Thinning under G-quality is performed at earlier stand age than P-quality, and then simulations under ‘no thinning’ based on stocking/ha at different thinning intensity. Results: Under ‘no thinning’, predicted net primary productivity (NPP) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 became 5.77 t/ha/year and 5.28 t/ha/year in 2100. However, under increasing CO2, it became 7.39 t/ha/year and 8.22 t/ha/year respectively in 2100. In the future, increasing CO2 would be the dominating factor for an increase in teak growth; however, abnormal precipitation and warmer temperature could produce an unforeseen growth condition. The carbon stock and CO2 sequestration are predicted to be higher under no thinning, which signifies the CO2 fertilisation effect in teak. Conclusion: The set of parameters used in 3-PGmix offers an opportunity to predict teak responses to future climatic conditions and management treatments.

AB - Key message: Teak (Tectona grandis L. f.) is a native tree species of India. It is one of the most desirable timber species because of its strength, fine texture, and durability. Its growth is strongly dependent on the climatic conditions, but empirical data are often unavailable to support management decisions. The physiological principles for predicting growth incorporated in the 3-PGmix model make it a useful tool in modelling the growth responses and management in the changing climate. We assessed that under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and no thinning, teak would store more carbon than currently. Context: Uncertainty and lack of scientific understanding about the growth response to climate change and thinning regimes have created challenges in teak sustainability, both regionally and globally. Aims: This research examines climate change and management implications on teak growth in India using the 3-PGmix model. Methods: The 3-PGmix model was coupled with climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) to forecast growth response up to the year 2100 with 1981–2010 as the baseline under thinning (G-quality, P-quality) regimes. Thinning under G-quality is performed at earlier stand age than P-quality, and then simulations under ‘no thinning’ based on stocking/ha at different thinning intensity. Results: Under ‘no thinning’, predicted net primary productivity (NPP) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 became 5.77 t/ha/year and 5.28 t/ha/year in 2100. However, under increasing CO2, it became 7.39 t/ha/year and 8.22 t/ha/year respectively in 2100. In the future, increasing CO2 would be the dominating factor for an increase in teak growth; however, abnormal precipitation and warmer temperature could produce an unforeseen growth condition. The carbon stock and CO2 sequestration are predicted to be higher under no thinning, which signifies the CO2 fertilisation effect in teak. Conclusion: The set of parameters used in 3-PGmix offers an opportunity to predict teak responses to future climatic conditions and management treatments.

KW - 3-PGmix

KW - Climate change

KW - NPP

KW - Process-based model

KW - Sensitivity analysis

KW - Teak

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AN - SCOPUS:85115171168

SN - 1286-4560

VL - 78

JO - Annals of Forest Science

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ER -

Modelling the growth response to climate change and management of Tectona grandis L. f. using the 3-PGmix model

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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