Abstract
Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 740-751 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Applied Energy |
| Volume | 232 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 15 Dec 2018 |
| MoE publication type | Not Eligible |
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Keywords
- Elasticities
- Energy system modeling
- Modal shift
- TIMES models
- Transport
Cite this
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Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution. / Salvucci, Raffaele; Tattini, Jacopo; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Lehtilä, Antti; Karlsson, Kenneth.
In: Applied Energy, Vol. 232, 15.12.2018, p. 740-751.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution
AU - Salvucci, Raffaele
AU - Tattini, Jacopo
AU - Gargiulo, Maurizio
AU - Lehtilä, Antti
AU - Karlsson, Kenneth
PY - 2018/12/15
Y1 - 2018/12/15
N2 - Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.
AB - Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.
KW - Elasticities
KW - Energy system modeling
KW - Modal shift
KW - TIMES models
KW - Transport
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85053196829&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.083
DO - 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.083
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85053196829
VL - 232
SP - 740
EP - 751
JO - Applied Energy
JF - Applied Energy
SN - 0306-2619
ER -