Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution

Raffaele Salvucci; Jacopo Tattini; Maurizio Gargiulo; Antti Lehtilä; Kenneth Karlsson

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.083

Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution

Raffaele Salvucci^*, Jacopo Tattini, Maurizio Gargiulo, Antti Lehtilä, Kenneth Karlsson

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

45 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO₂ emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	740-751
Number of pages	12
Journal	Applied Energy
Volume	232
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.083
Publication status	Published - 15 Dec 2018
MoE publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

Funding

The work presented in this paper is a result of the research activities of the COMETS (Co-Management of Energy and Transport Sector) project (grant number 4106-00033A ) and the SHIFT (Sustainable Horizons for Transport) project (grant number 77892 ), funded respectively by The Innovation Fund Denmark, and Nordic Energy Research. Raffaele Salvucci is grateful to Professor Stefano Corgnati and Professor Romano Borchiellini for the opportunity to spend a visiting research period at the Energy Center of the Politecnico di Torino, during which the draft of the present manuscript was prepared and which was possible thanks to the financial support of the Otto Mønsteds Fond.

Keywords

Elasticities
Energy system modeling
Modal shift
TIMES models
Transport

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.083

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title = "Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution",

abstract = "Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.",

keywords = "Elasticities, Energy system modeling, Modal shift, TIMES models, Transport",

author = "Raffaele Salvucci and Jacopo Tattini and Maurizio Gargiulo and Antti Lehtil{\"a} and Kenneth Karlsson",

note = "Funding Information: The work presented in this paper is a result of the research activities of the COMETS (Co-Management of Energy and Transport Sector) project (grant number 4106-00033A ) and the SHIFT (Sustainable Horizons for Transport) project (grant number 77892 ), funded respectively by The Innovation Fund Denmark, and Nordic Energy Research. Raffaele Salvucci is grateful to Professor Stefano Corgnati and Professor Romano Borchiellini for the opportunity to spend a visiting research period at the Energy Center of the Politecnico di Torino, during which the draft of the present manuscript was prepared and which was possible thanks to the financial support of the Otto M{\o}nsteds Fond. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 Elsevier Ltd Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

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doi = "10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.083",

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AU - Salvucci, Raffaele

AU - Tattini, Jacopo

AU - Gargiulo, Maurizio

AU - Lehtilä, Antti

AU - Karlsson, Kenneth

N1 - Funding Information: The work presented in this paper is a result of the research activities of the COMETS (Co-Management of Energy and Transport Sector) project (grant number 4106-00033A ) and the SHIFT (Sustainable Horizons for Transport) project (grant number 77892 ), funded respectively by The Innovation Fund Denmark, and Nordic Energy Research. Raffaele Salvucci is grateful to Professor Stefano Corgnati and Professor Romano Borchiellini for the opportunity to spend a visiting research period at the Energy Center of the Politecnico di Torino, during which the draft of the present manuscript was prepared and which was possible thanks to the financial support of the Otto Mønsteds Fond. Publisher Copyright: © 2018 Elsevier Ltd Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2018/12/15

Y1 - 2018/12/15

N2 - Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.

AB - Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.

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KW - TIMES models

KW - Transport

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SP - 740

EP - 751

JO - Applied Energy

JF - Applied Energy

ER -

Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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