Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution

Raffaele Salvucci, Jacopo Tattini, Maurizio Gargiulo, Antti Lehtilä, Kenneth Karlsson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11% of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)740-751
Number of pages12
JournalApplied Energy
Volume232
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 15 Dec 2018
MoE publication typeNot Eligible

Fingerprint

elasticity
Elasticity
substitution
Substitution reactions
modeling
containment
environmental policy
Sensitivity analysis
train
sensitivity analysis
automobile
Railroad cars
engineering
methodology
demand
energy

Keywords

  • Elasticities
  • Energy system modeling
  • Modal shift
  • TIMES models
  • Transport

Cite this

Salvucci, Raffaele ; Tattini, Jacopo ; Gargiulo, Maurizio ; Lehtilä, Antti ; Karlsson, Kenneth. / Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution. In: Applied Energy. 2018 ; Vol. 232. pp. 740-751.
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abstract = "Several efforts have been directed lately towards the endogenisation of transport modes competition in Energy/Economy/Environment/Engineering (E4) models. TIMES-DKEMS is a novel methodology paving the way for applying elasticities of substitution to incorporate transport modal shift into TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) models. Substitution elasticities are defined for four transport demand aggregates, each corresponding to a different distance range class. Within an aggregate, modal demands can adjust their levels according to the defined substitution elasticity and in response to changes of their shadow prices relative to a reference case. The total volume of the transport demand over the aggregate is conserved and modal shift potentials are implemented to guarantee realistic dynamics. The behavior of TIMES-DKEMS is tested under an arbitrary environmental policy, an increasingly stringent bound on CO2 emissions. Modal shares are compared with the standard version of TIMES-DK. Results show that in 2050, 11{\%} of car mobility demand is substituted by more efficient and less costly modes such as train and coach. A sensitivity analysis on the values of substitution elasticities indicates that higher absolute values correspond to larger modal shift. Finally, other model constraints, such as mode-specific travel patterns, interact with the substitution mechanism resulting in a modal shift containment.",
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Modelling transport modal shift in TIMES models through elasticities of substitution. / Salvucci, Raffaele; Tattini, Jacopo; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Lehtilä, Antti; Karlsson, Kenneth.

In: Applied Energy, Vol. 232, 15.12.2018, p. 740-751.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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