Models, modelling and modellers: An application to risk analysis

Björn Wahlström

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Risk analysis has become increasingly important with the emergence of new, unknown and potentially dangerous technologies. Risk analysis builds on the use of models. If the models are valid representations of reality, they can be used to predict and thus also to minimize the risks. Any model is, however, a simplification and a generalization which implies that it has only a limited region of validity. If a model in the risk analysis process is used outside its region of validity it can introduce serious flaws in the actions on different risks. The use of deficient models actually poses the most serious threat to the validity of risk assessments. To understand the origins of deficient models, it is necessary to consider the modelling process and the people involved in using the models. Models in risk analysis are based on many assumptions which have to be understood if erroneous interpretations are to be avoided. The paper considers theoretical foundations of risk analysis, models used in risk analysis and the modelling process leading to these models.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)477 - 487
Number of pages11
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Volume75
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1994
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fingerprint

Risk Analysis
Risk analysis
Modeling
Model
Process Modeling
Risk Assessment
Simplification
Risk assessment
Valid
Minimise
Imply
Predict
Unknown
Necessary
Defects

Cite this

@article{795f2cb2b23a42cc84048b49c5510247,
title = "Models, modelling and modellers: An application to risk analysis",
abstract = "Risk analysis has become increasingly important with the emergence of new, unknown and potentially dangerous technologies. Risk analysis builds on the use of models. If the models are valid representations of reality, they can be used to predict and thus also to minimize the risks. Any model is, however, a simplification and a generalization which implies that it has only a limited region of validity. If a model in the risk analysis process is used outside its region of validity it can introduce serious flaws in the actions on different risks. The use of deficient models actually poses the most serious threat to the validity of risk assessments. To understand the origins of deficient models, it is necessary to consider the modelling process and the people involved in using the models. Models in risk analysis are based on many assumptions which have to be understood if erroneous interpretations are to be avoided. The paper considers theoretical foundations of risk analysis, models used in risk analysis and the modelling process leading to these models.",
author = "Bj{\"o}rn Wahlstr{\"o}m",
year = "1994",
doi = "10.1016/0377-2217(94)90290-9",
language = "English",
volume = "75",
pages = "477 -- 487",
journal = "European Journal of Operational Research",
issn = "0377-2217",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "3",

}

Models, modelling and modellers : An application to risk analysis. / Wahlström, Björn.

In: European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 75, No. 3, 1994, p. 477 - 487.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Models, modelling and modellers

T2 - An application to risk analysis

AU - Wahlström, Björn

PY - 1994

Y1 - 1994

N2 - Risk analysis has become increasingly important with the emergence of new, unknown and potentially dangerous technologies. Risk analysis builds on the use of models. If the models are valid representations of reality, they can be used to predict and thus also to minimize the risks. Any model is, however, a simplification and a generalization which implies that it has only a limited region of validity. If a model in the risk analysis process is used outside its region of validity it can introduce serious flaws in the actions on different risks. The use of deficient models actually poses the most serious threat to the validity of risk assessments. To understand the origins of deficient models, it is necessary to consider the modelling process and the people involved in using the models. Models in risk analysis are based on many assumptions which have to be understood if erroneous interpretations are to be avoided. The paper considers theoretical foundations of risk analysis, models used in risk analysis and the modelling process leading to these models.

AB - Risk analysis has become increasingly important with the emergence of new, unknown and potentially dangerous technologies. Risk analysis builds on the use of models. If the models are valid representations of reality, they can be used to predict and thus also to minimize the risks. Any model is, however, a simplification and a generalization which implies that it has only a limited region of validity. If a model in the risk analysis process is used outside its region of validity it can introduce serious flaws in the actions on different risks. The use of deficient models actually poses the most serious threat to the validity of risk assessments. To understand the origins of deficient models, it is necessary to consider the modelling process and the people involved in using the models. Models in risk analysis are based on many assumptions which have to be understood if erroneous interpretations are to be avoided. The paper considers theoretical foundations of risk analysis, models used in risk analysis and the modelling process leading to these models.

U2 - 10.1016/0377-2217(94)90290-9

DO - 10.1016/0377-2217(94)90290-9

M3 - Article

VL - 75

SP - 477

EP - 487

JO - European Journal of Operational Research

JF - European Journal of Operational Research

SN - 0377-2217

IS - 3

ER -