Abstract
The design, management and evaluation of foresight is
challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of
foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness
in the context of other policy processes. To help
overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of
foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way
and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which
analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge,
relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape,
system, organisation and individual. We construct these
layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them
with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in
Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from
considering multiple levels and respective different
emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape
layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge
while on the organisational layer it is more on
capabilities. The layers help position the foresight
exercise and its effects in relation to the broader
context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered
foresight to support the design, management and
evaluation of foresight.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 100-111 |
Journal | Futures |
Volume | 73 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2015 |
MoE publication type | A1 Journal article-refereed |
Keywords
- foresight
- foresight design
- foresight evaluation
- innovation system