Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile

Mikko Dufva, Totti Könnölä, Raija Koivisto

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The design, management and evaluation of foresight is challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness in the context of other policy processes. To help overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge, relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape, system, organisation and individual. We construct these layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from considering multiple levels and respective different emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge while on the organisational layer it is more on capabilities. The layers help position the foresight exercise and its effects in relation to the broader context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered foresight to support the design, management and evaluation of foresight.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)100-111
JournalFutures
Volume73
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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Chile
evaluation
management
Foresight
literature

Keywords

  • foresight
  • foresight design
  • foresight evaluation
  • innovation system

Cite this

Dufva, Mikko ; Könnölä, Totti ; Koivisto, Raija. / Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile. In: Futures. 2015 ; Vol. 73. pp. 100-111.
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Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile. / Dufva, Mikko; Könnölä, Totti; Koivisto, Raija.

In: Futures, Vol. 73, 2015, p. 100-111.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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