Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile

Mikko Dufva, Totti Könnölä, Raija Koivisto

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    14 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The design, management and evaluation of foresight is challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness in the context of other policy processes. To help overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge, relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape, system, organisation and individual. We construct these layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from considering multiple levels and respective different emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge while on the organisational layer it is more on capabilities. The layers help position the foresight exercise and its effects in relation to the broader context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered foresight to support the design, management and evaluation of foresight.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)100-111
    JournalFutures
    Volume73
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2015
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

    Fingerprint

    Chile
    evaluation
    management
    Foresight
    literature

    Keywords

    • foresight
    • foresight design
    • foresight evaluation
    • innovation system

    Cite this

    Dufva, Mikko ; Könnölä, Totti ; Koivisto, Raija. / Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile. In: Futures. 2015 ; Vol. 73. pp. 100-111.
    @article{099d45ac9b6b45d7858e60eee908b123,
    title = "Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile",
    abstract = "The design, management and evaluation of foresight is challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness in the context of other policy processes. To help overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge, relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape, system, organisation and individual. We construct these layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from considering multiple levels and respective different emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge while on the organisational layer it is more on capabilities. The layers help position the foresight exercise and its effects in relation to the broader context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered foresight to support the design, management and evaluation of foresight.",
    keywords = "foresight, foresight design, foresight evaluation, innovation system",
    author = "Mikko Dufva and Totti K{\"o}nn{\"o}l{\"a} and Raija Koivisto",
    note = "Project code: 104148",
    year = "2015",
    doi = "10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010",
    language = "English",
    volume = "73",
    pages = "100--111",
    journal = "Futures",
    issn = "0016-3287",
    publisher = "Elsevier",

    }

    Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile. / Dufva, Mikko; Könnölä, Totti; Koivisto, Raija.

    In: Futures, Vol. 73, 2015, p. 100-111.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile

    AU - Dufva, Mikko

    AU - Könnölä, Totti

    AU - Koivisto, Raija

    N1 - Project code: 104148

    PY - 2015

    Y1 - 2015

    N2 - The design, management and evaluation of foresight is challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness in the context of other policy processes. To help overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge, relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape, system, organisation and individual. We construct these layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from considering multiple levels and respective different emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge while on the organisational layer it is more on capabilities. The layers help position the foresight exercise and its effects in relation to the broader context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered foresight to support the design, management and evaluation of foresight.

    AB - The design, management and evaluation of foresight is challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness in the context of other policy processes. To help overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge, relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape, system, organisation and individual. We construct these layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from considering multiple levels and respective different emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge while on the organisational layer it is more on capabilities. The layers help position the foresight exercise and its effects in relation to the broader context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered foresight to support the design, management and evaluation of foresight.

    KW - foresight

    KW - foresight design

    KW - foresight evaluation

    KW - innovation system

    U2 - 10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010

    DO - 10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010

    M3 - Article

    VL - 73

    SP - 100

    EP - 111

    JO - Futures

    JF - Futures

    SN - 0016-3287

    ER -