Abstract
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 100-111 |
| Journal | Futures |
| Volume | 73 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2015 |
| MoE publication type | A1 Journal article-refereed |
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Keywords
- foresight
- foresight design
- foresight evaluation
- innovation system
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Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile. / Dufva, Mikko; Könnölä, Totti; Koivisto, Raija.
In: Futures, Vol. 73, 2015, p. 100-111.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile
AU - Dufva, Mikko
AU - Könnölä, Totti
AU - Koivisto, Raija
N1 - Project code: 104148
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - The design, management and evaluation of foresight is challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness in the context of other policy processes. To help overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge, relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape, system, organisation and individual. We construct these layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from considering multiple levels and respective different emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge while on the organisational layer it is more on capabilities. The layers help position the foresight exercise and its effects in relation to the broader context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered foresight to support the design, management and evaluation of foresight.
AB - The design, management and evaluation of foresight is challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness in the context of other policy processes. To help overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge, relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape, system, organisation and individual. We construct these layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from considering multiple levels and respective different emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge while on the organisational layer it is more on capabilities. The layers help position the foresight exercise and its effects in relation to the broader context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered foresight to support the design, management and evaluation of foresight.
KW - foresight
KW - foresight design
KW - foresight evaluation
KW - innovation system
U2 - 10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010
DO - 10.1016/j.futures.2015.08.010
M3 - Article
VL - 73
SP - 100
EP - 111
JO - Futures
JF - Futures
SN - 0016-3287
ER -