Near-, medium- and long-term impacts of climate change on the thermal energy consumption of buildings in Finland under RCP climate scenarios

Jari Pulkkinen (Corresponding Author), Jean-Nicolas Louis, Vincent Debusschere, Eva Pongrácz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

The building sector is critical in climate change mitigation by reducing its energy consumption. At the same time, warming climate requires adaptation measures from buildings, making it necessary to study the future thermal energy demand of buildings. This paper studies the impact of climate change on the thermal energy demand of buildings in a heating dominated climate of Finland, under “representative concentration pathway” (RCP) climate scenarios in near- (2030), medium- (2050) and long-term (2080) horizon. Additionally, the impact of the thermal performance level of the buildings is investigated. The thermal energy demand calculation is based on overarching standards from the European “energy performance of buildings” directive. The weather scenarios present both typical and extreme weather years, applied through morphing and future weather data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The results show that thermal energy demand in Finland in 2080 can decrease up to 74.6 kWh/m
. In addition, the decrease in heating demand will be higher than the increase in cooling demand. Cooling can become the dominant peak in long-term evaluations, especially in the South (Vantaa) with passive buildings under RCP8.5 climate scenario. Renovation is the most efficient action to decrease energy intensity, the earliest it is done the better.
Original languageEnglish
Article number131636
JournalEnergy
Volume302
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sept 2024
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Funding

This research was funded by University of Oulu Graduate School (UniOGS). Jean-Nicolas Louis acknowledges the Academy of Finland for providing funding for this research with the Nexus4EU project (333076).

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Climate adaptation
  • Building energy need
  • Thermal energy need
  • Morphing
  • RCP climate scenario

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