@article{c211dd24e8284ad09cdb06cafd4130f5,
title = "Near-Term Potential of Biofuels, Electrofuels, and Battery Electric Vehicles in Decarbonizing Road Transport",
abstract = "We develop a framework for comparing carbon-neutral synthetic fuels (CNSFs) with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as alternatives to reducing CO2 emissions from light-duty vehicles. CNSFs can be divided into fuels produced from biomass via gasification and electrofuels produced from CO2 and water using electricity. We develop CNSF cost estimates for first-of-a-kind plants operating at commercial scale. Although already competitive over short distances, we find that longer-range BEVs are likely to remain more expensive than CNSFs even if low (∼$125/kWh) battery costs are achieved, and all three options would require carbon prices in excess of $130/tCO2 or oil prices in excess of $100/bbl to become commercially viable relative to petroleum. The viability of electrofuels ultimately depends on access to low-cost, ultra-low-carbon power systems or sources of zero-carbon electricity with high annual availability. Priorities should include deploying a portfolio of CNSF technologies to help appraise decarbonization pathways, economies of scale, and learning by doing.",
keywords = "battery electric vehicles, carbon-neutral synthetic fuels, electrofuels, low-carbon transport alternatives, synthetic biofuels",
author = "Ilkka Hannula and Reiner, {David M.}",
note = "Funding Information: I.H. acknowledges funding from the Fortum Foundation and Tekes —the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation for the Neo-Carbon Energy (project 40101/14), which helped support his visit to Cambridge, where the study was originally conceptualized, in 2015/16. We also appreciate helpful comments from Jacob Teter at IEA, Alberto Moro at JRC, and David Newbery. Funding Information: I.H. acknowledges funding from the Fortum Foundation and Tekes?the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation for the Neo-Carbon Energy (project 40101/14), which helped support his visit to Cambridge, where the study was originally conceptualized, in 2015/16. We also appreciate helpful comments from Jacob Teter at IEA, Alberto Moro at JRC, and David Newbery. Conceptualization, I.H. and D.M.R.; Methodology, I.H. and D.M.R.; Investigation, I.H. and D.M.R; Formal Analysis, I.H. and D.M.R; Visualization, I.H.; Writing ? Original Draft, I.H. and D.M.R; Writing ? Review & Editing, I.H. and D.M.R; Funding Acquisition, I.H. The authors declare no competing interests. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 Elsevier Inc. Copyright: Copyright 2019 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 Elsevier Inc.",
year = "2019",
month = oct,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1016/j.joule.2019.08.013",
language = "English",
volume = "3",
pages = "2390--2402",
journal = "Joule",
issn = "2542-4351",
publisher = "Cell Press",
number = "10",
}