On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment

Dissertation

Tony Rosqvist

Research output: ThesisDissertationCollection of Articles

Abstract

The increased use of risk assesment in governmental and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in providing information for safety related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and analysis of options. The use and elicitation of expert judgement is therefore subject to on-going research. Furthermore, expert judgement is also required in the quality assurance or quality verification of risk assessment. The research presented in the thesis addresses qualitative and probabilistic methods supporting the use of expert judgement in specific decision contexts; introduces a conceptual and procedural framework for quality verification of risk assessment; and presents techniques for the aggregation of probability distributions specified by experts' percentile information. The methodological view to risk assessment adopted in the thesis is requisite modelling, where a decision and risk model is developed for a certain decision context to support decision-making under uncertainty, and refined until the decision-maker has confidence in the results and prescriptions obtained from the model. The decision and risk modelling approaches presented in the thesis are related to specific decision contexts in maritime safety, maintenance management, and software reliability. The modelling approaches presented can, however, be utilised for risk-informed decision-making in other application areas as well.
Original languageEnglish
QualificationDoctor Degree
Awarding Institution
  • Aalto University
Supervisors/Advisors
  • Hämäläinen, Raimo, Supervisor, External person
  • Pulkkinen, Urho, Supervisor, External person
Award date11 Dec 2003
Place of PublicationEspoo
Publisher
Print ISBNs951-38-6243-7
Electronic ISBNs951-38-6244-5
Publication statusPublished - 2003
MoE publication typeG5 Doctoral dissertation (article)

Fingerprint

risk assessment
decision making
safety
modeling
decision
hazard
software
thesis

Keywords

  • risk assessment
  • quality of risk assessment
  • qualification of risk assessment
  • expert judgement
  • expert model
  • probabilistic safety assessment
  • formal safety assessment
  • risk modelling

Cite this

Rosqvist, T. (2003). On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment: Dissertation. Espoo: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland.
Rosqvist, Tony. / On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment : Dissertation. Espoo : VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2003. 52 p.
@phdthesis{7f6d1c5dc84a4afd981be9915fbd8092,
title = "On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment: Dissertation",
abstract = "The increased use of risk assesment in governmental and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in providing information for safety related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and analysis of options. The use and elicitation of expert judgement is therefore subject to on-going research. Furthermore, expert judgement is also required in the quality assurance or quality verification of risk assessment. The research presented in the thesis addresses qualitative and probabilistic methods supporting the use of expert judgement in specific decision contexts; introduces a conceptual and procedural framework for quality verification of risk assessment; and presents techniques for the aggregation of probability distributions specified by experts' percentile information. The methodological view to risk assessment adopted in the thesis is requisite modelling, where a decision and risk model is developed for a certain decision context to support decision-making under uncertainty, and refined until the decision-maker has confidence in the results and prescriptions obtained from the model. The decision and risk modelling approaches presented in the thesis are related to specific decision contexts in maritime safety, maintenance management, and software reliability. The modelling approaches presented can, however, be utilised for risk-informed decision-making in other application areas as well.",
keywords = "risk assessment, quality of risk assessment, qualification of risk assessment, expert judgement, expert model, probabilistic safety assessment, formal safety assessment, risk modelling",
author = "Tony Rosqvist",
year = "2003",
language = "English",
isbn = "951-38-6243-7",
series = "VTT Publications",
publisher = "VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland",
number = "507",
address = "Finland",
school = "Aalto University",

}

Rosqvist, T 2003, 'On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment: Dissertation', Doctor Degree, Aalto University, Espoo.

On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment : Dissertation. / Rosqvist, Tony.

Espoo : VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2003. 52 p.

Research output: ThesisDissertationCollection of Articles

TY - THES

T1 - On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment

T2 - Dissertation

AU - Rosqvist, Tony

PY - 2003

Y1 - 2003

N2 - The increased use of risk assesment in governmental and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in providing information for safety related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and analysis of options. The use and elicitation of expert judgement is therefore subject to on-going research. Furthermore, expert judgement is also required in the quality assurance or quality verification of risk assessment. The research presented in the thesis addresses qualitative and probabilistic methods supporting the use of expert judgement in specific decision contexts; introduces a conceptual and procedural framework for quality verification of risk assessment; and presents techniques for the aggregation of probability distributions specified by experts' percentile information. The methodological view to risk assessment adopted in the thesis is requisite modelling, where a decision and risk model is developed for a certain decision context to support decision-making under uncertainty, and refined until the decision-maker has confidence in the results and prescriptions obtained from the model. The decision and risk modelling approaches presented in the thesis are related to specific decision contexts in maritime safety, maintenance management, and software reliability. The modelling approaches presented can, however, be utilised for risk-informed decision-making in other application areas as well.

AB - The increased use of risk assesment in governmental and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in providing information for safety related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and analysis of options. The use and elicitation of expert judgement is therefore subject to on-going research. Furthermore, expert judgement is also required in the quality assurance or quality verification of risk assessment. The research presented in the thesis addresses qualitative and probabilistic methods supporting the use of expert judgement in specific decision contexts; introduces a conceptual and procedural framework for quality verification of risk assessment; and presents techniques for the aggregation of probability distributions specified by experts' percentile information. The methodological view to risk assessment adopted in the thesis is requisite modelling, where a decision and risk model is developed for a certain decision context to support decision-making under uncertainty, and refined until the decision-maker has confidence in the results and prescriptions obtained from the model. The decision and risk modelling approaches presented in the thesis are related to specific decision contexts in maritime safety, maintenance management, and software reliability. The modelling approaches presented can, however, be utilised for risk-informed decision-making in other application areas as well.

KW - risk assessment

KW - quality of risk assessment

KW - qualification of risk assessment

KW - expert judgement

KW - expert model

KW - probabilistic safety assessment

KW - formal safety assessment

KW - risk modelling

M3 - Dissertation

SN - 951-38-6243-7

T3 - VTT Publications

PB - VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

CY - Espoo

ER -

Rosqvist T. On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment: Dissertation. Espoo: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2003. 52 p.