Patent-based technology forecasting: case of electric and hydrogen vehicle

Samira Ranaei (Corresponding Author), Matti Karvonen, Arho Suominen, Tuomo Kässi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of emerging technological paths in the automotive industry. Worldwide patent data from the years 1990-2010 was collected and utilised to define the technological life cycles of the electric and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The novelty of our study is practicing the patent analysis approach using text mining techniques to collect patents according to their concepts in the automotive industry. The patent analysis results are compared to existing literature and expert opinion studies in alternative fuel vehicles field. The findings suggest that the development of electric vehicles will be quicker with a higher R&D share, compared to hydrogen vehicles. By gathering data and insights, the paper also offers general views on future automotive technology trajectories.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)20-40
JournalInternational Journal of Energy Technology and Policy
Volume12
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fingerprint

patent
hydrogen
Automotive industry
automotive industry
Hydrogen
Electric batteries
Alternative fuels
Electric vehicles
electric vehicle
alternative fuel
Fuel cells
Life cycle
industry
fuel cell
Trajectories
life cycle
trajectory
expert
vehicle
analysis

Keywords

  • technology forecasting
  • patent analysis
  • text mining
  • technology life cycle
  • electric vehicles
  • hydrogen vehicles
  • zero emission vehicles
  • patents
  • automotive technology
  • automobile industry
  • technology trajectories

Cite this

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title = "Patent-based technology forecasting: case of electric and hydrogen vehicle",
abstract = "The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of emerging technological paths in the automotive industry. Worldwide patent data from the years 1990-2010 was collected and utilised to define the technological life cycles of the electric and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The novelty of our study is practicing the patent analysis approach using text mining techniques to collect patents according to their concepts in the automotive industry. The patent analysis results are compared to existing literature and expert opinion studies in alternative fuel vehicles field. The findings suggest that the development of electric vehicles will be quicker with a higher R&D share, compared to hydrogen vehicles. By gathering data and insights, the paper also offers general views on future automotive technology trajectories.",
keywords = "technology forecasting, patent analysis, text mining, technology life cycle, electric vehicles, hydrogen vehicles, zero emission vehicles, patents, automotive technology, automobile industry, technology trajectories",
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Patent-based technology forecasting: case of electric and hydrogen vehicle. / Ranaei, Samira (Corresponding Author); Karvonen, Matti; Suominen, Arho; Kässi, Tuomo.

In: International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, Vol. 12, No. 1, 2016, p. 20-40.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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AB - The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of emerging technological paths in the automotive industry. Worldwide patent data from the years 1990-2010 was collected and utilised to define the technological life cycles of the electric and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The novelty of our study is practicing the patent analysis approach using text mining techniques to collect patents according to their concepts in the automotive industry. The patent analysis results are compared to existing literature and expert opinion studies in alternative fuel vehicles field. The findings suggest that the development of electric vehicles will be quicker with a higher R&D share, compared to hydrogen vehicles. By gathering data and insights, the paper also offers general views on future automotive technology trajectories.

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