Patent-based technology forecasting: case of electric and hydrogen vehicle

Samira Ranaei (Corresponding Author), Matti Karvonen, Arho Suominen, Tuomo Kässi

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    2 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of emerging technological paths in the automotive industry. Worldwide patent data from the years 1990-2010 was collected and utilised to define the technological life cycles of the electric and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The novelty of our study is practicing the patent analysis approach using text mining techniques to collect patents according to their concepts in the automotive industry. The patent analysis results are compared to existing literature and expert opinion studies in alternative fuel vehicles field. The findings suggest that the development of electric vehicles will be quicker with a higher R&D share, compared to hydrogen vehicles. By gathering data and insights, the paper also offers general views on future automotive technology trajectories.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)20-40
    JournalInternational Journal of Energy Technology and Policy
    Volume12
    Issue number1
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2016
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

    Fingerprint

    patent
    hydrogen
    Automotive industry
    automotive industry
    Hydrogen
    Electric batteries
    Alternative fuels
    Electric vehicles
    electric vehicle
    alternative fuel
    Fuel cells
    Life cycle
    industry
    fuel cell
    Trajectories
    life cycle
    trajectory
    expert
    vehicle
    analysis

    Keywords

    • technology forecasting
    • patent analysis
    • text mining
    • technology life cycle
    • electric vehicles
    • hydrogen vehicles
    • zero emission vehicles
    • patents
    • automotive technology
    • automobile industry
    • technology trajectories

    Cite this

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    title = "Patent-based technology forecasting: case of electric and hydrogen vehicle",
    abstract = "The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of emerging technological paths in the automotive industry. Worldwide patent data from the years 1990-2010 was collected and utilised to define the technological life cycles of the electric and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The novelty of our study is practicing the patent analysis approach using text mining techniques to collect patents according to their concepts in the automotive industry. The patent analysis results are compared to existing literature and expert opinion studies in alternative fuel vehicles field. The findings suggest that the development of electric vehicles will be quicker with a higher R&D share, compared to hydrogen vehicles. By gathering data and insights, the paper also offers general views on future automotive technology trajectories.",
    keywords = "technology forecasting, patent analysis, text mining, technology life cycle, electric vehicles, hydrogen vehicles, zero emission vehicles, patents, automotive technology, automobile industry, technology trajectories",
    author = "Samira Ranaei and Matti Karvonen and Arho Suominen and Tuomo K{\"a}ssi",
    year = "2016",
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    Patent-based technology forecasting: case of electric and hydrogen vehicle. / Ranaei, Samira (Corresponding Author); Karvonen, Matti; Suominen, Arho; Kässi, Tuomo.

    In: International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, Vol. 12, No. 1, 2016, p. 20-40.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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    AB - The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of emerging technological paths in the automotive industry. Worldwide patent data from the years 1990-2010 was collected and utilised to define the technological life cycles of the electric and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The novelty of our study is practicing the patent analysis approach using text mining techniques to collect patents according to their concepts in the automotive industry. The patent analysis results are compared to existing literature and expert opinion studies in alternative fuel vehicles field. The findings suggest that the development of electric vehicles will be quicker with a higher R&D share, compared to hydrogen vehicles. By gathering data and insights, the paper also offers general views on future automotive technology trajectories.

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