Patent-based technology forecasting: case of electric and hydrogen vehicle

Samira Ranaei (Corresponding Author), Matti Karvonen, Arho Suominen, Tuomo Kässi

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    9 Citations (Scopus)


    The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of emerging technological paths in the automotive industry. Worldwide patent data from the years 1990-2010 was collected and utilised to define the technological life cycles of the electric and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The novelty of our study is practicing the patent analysis approach using text mining techniques to collect patents according to their concepts in the automotive industry. The patent analysis results are compared to existing literature and expert opinion studies in alternative fuel vehicles field. The findings suggest that the development of electric vehicles will be quicker with a higher R&D share, compared to hydrogen vehicles. By gathering data and insights, the paper also offers general views on future automotive technology trajectories.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)20-40
    JournalInternational Journal of Energy Technology and Policy
    Issue number1
    Publication statusPublished - 2016
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed


    • technology forecasting
    • patent analysis
    • text mining
    • technology life cycle
    • electric vehicles
    • hydrogen vehicles
    • zero emission vehicles
    • patents
    • automotive technology
    • automobile industry
    • technology trajectories


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