Performance and cost of CCS in the pulp and paper industry part 2: Economic feasibility of amine-based post-combustion CO₂ capture

The economic feasibility of retrofitting an amine based post-combustion CO₂ capture process to an existing Kraft pulp mill and an existing integrated pulp and board mill has been assessed. This study builds on the technical assessment of the energy performance of the mills when retrofitting a post-combustion CO₂ capture process by Onarheim et al. (2017). Between 75 to 100% of the CO₂ emissions from the pulp and paper industry originate from the combustion of biomass. If the raw material is sourced sustainably, these emissions are categorized as carbon neutral. Applying sustainably managed biomass in the pulp and paper processes and capturing the resulting CO₂ for permanent storage enables the industry to go carbon negative. In this study, the economic impact of retrofitting CO₂ capture from the flue gases of the recovery boiler, the multi-fuel boiler and the lime kiln were assessed. The levelized cost of pulp and the cost of CO₂ avoided were evaluated based on six different scenarios varying the CO₂ tax, incentives for renewable electricity production, with and without recognizing biogenic CO₂ emissions as neutral (exempting CO₂ emissions from tax or not), and rewarding captured and permanently stored CO₂ with negative emissions credit. Results show that the pulp and paper industry has a potential for realizing feasible implementation of large-scale industrial Bio-CCS. For cases where 60-90% of total site CO₂ emissions are captured, the cost of avoided CO₂ amounts to 52-66/t for the Kraft pulp mill and 71-89/t for the integrated pulp and board mill. The cost of avoided CO₂, and thus the realization of Bio-CCS in the pulp and paper industry, is strongly dependent on prevailing policy frameworks such as the EU ETS. In order to reach a levelized cost of pulp similar to the reference mill without CO₂ capture, a negative CO₂ emission credit of 60-70/t CO₂ for the Kraft pulp mill and 70-80/t CO₂ for the integrated pulp and board mill will be required. As long as biogenic CO₂ emissions that are captured and permanently stored are not recognized as negative and rewarded accordingly there is no economic incentive for the owners of pulp and paper mills to implement CCS. The only way to get the pulp and paper industry to implement and deploy Bio-CCS will need the support of the decision-makers in promoting the right policy framework and regulations to encourage the investment such as strong incentives for negative emissions which are bankable during the long term operation of the mills.