Perusskenaariot energia- ja ilmastotoimien kokonaisuudelle kohti päästöttömyyttä (PEIKKO)

The aim of the PEIKKO research project has been to formulate baseline scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions and energy balances up to 2055 with existing energy and climate measures. Three alternative scenarios With Existing Measures (i.e., WEM) were named as WEM-Perus (WEM-P), WEM-High (WEM-H) and WEM-Low (WEM-L). In each scenario variant, different assumptions in operating environment were assumed, which had an impact on clean technology investments. In the agricultural and transport sectors different assumptions on behavioural changes were also assumed. The scenario results indicate that Finland will not achieve its climate neutrality target by 2035. The need for additional measures to fulfil the emission gap is 16–19 Mt CO2-eq. in the WEM-P and WEM-H scenarios. The assumption of lower economy growth in WEM-L led to an increase in net carbon sinks in the land use sector and, thus, the emission gap decreased to 2 Mt CO2-eq. in 2035. The EU has set a 50% greenhouse gas reduction target for the effort sharing sector compared to the 2005 emission level for Finland. Based on scenario assessments, this target will not be fulfilled either, as the emission gap in the WEM variants was 1.3-1,6 Mt CO2 -eq. It is evident that additional measures are needed in all the emission sectors and land use sector.