Pluralistic backcasting: Integrating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy

Anu Tuominen, P. Tapio, V. Varho, Tuuli Järvi, D. Banister

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    78 Citations (Scopus)


    Traditionally backcasting studies in the field transport are based on a single normative vision (often with clearly stated targets) and alternative pathways are then developed to reach that vision. This paper expands the discussion on the role and importance of backcasting towards using multiple visions as a part of strategic transport planning process. This is done by presenting a method for pluralistic backcasting, which is defined as a process where multiple visions of the future are developed in a participatory, interdisciplinary process using the Delphi method. Further, the pathways to the alternative visions are constructed with a set of policy packages in a collaborative process with key stakeholders. The pluralistic backcasting approach outlined in the paper presents a set of practical tools to support development and implementation of climate strategies and policy programmes for transport. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of backcasting. The approach is tested with a case study of multiple visions of the future on CO2 emissions for transport in Finland up to the year 2050, including the identification of required policy packages to achieve the visions.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)41 - 58
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed


    • transport
    • emissions
    • carbon dioxide
    • backcasting
    • policy packages


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