Pluralistic backcasting

Integrating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy

Anu Tuominen, P. Tapio, V. Varho, Tuuli Järvi, D. Banister

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

30 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Traditionally backcasting studies in the field transport are based on a single normative vision (often with clearly stated targets) and alternative pathways are then developed to reach that vision. This paper expands the discussion on the role and importance of backcasting towards using multiple visions as a part of strategic transport planning process. This is done by presenting a method for pluralistic backcasting, which is defined as a process where multiple visions of the future are developed in a participatory, interdisciplinary process using the Delphi method. Further, the pathways to the alternative visions are constructed with a set of policy packages in a collaborative process with key stakeholders. The pluralistic backcasting approach outlined in the paper presents a set of practical tools to support development and implementation of climate strategies and policy programmes for transport. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of backcasting. The approach is tested with a case study of multiple visions of the future on CO2 emissions for transport in Finland up to the year 2050, including the identification of required policy packages to achieve the visions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)41 - 58
JournalFutures
Volume60
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fingerprint

climate policy
environmental policy
planning process
Finland
stakeholder
climate
policy
Climate policy
method

Keywords

  • transport
  • emissions
  • carbon dioxide
  • backcasting
  • policy packages

Cite this

Tuominen, Anu ; Tapio, P. ; Varho, V. ; Järvi, Tuuli ; Banister, D. / Pluralistic backcasting : Integrating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy. In: Futures. 2014 ; Vol. 60. pp. 41 - 58.
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Pluralistic backcasting : Integrating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy. / Tuominen, Anu; Tapio, P.; Varho, V.; Järvi, Tuuli; Banister, D.

In: Futures, Vol. 60, 2014, p. 41 - 58.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

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T2 - Integrating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy

AU - Tuominen, Anu

AU - Tapio, P.

AU - Varho, V.

AU - Järvi, Tuuli

AU - Banister, D.

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N2 - Traditionally backcasting studies in the field transport are based on a single normative vision (often with clearly stated targets) and alternative pathways are then developed to reach that vision. This paper expands the discussion on the role and importance of backcasting towards using multiple visions as a part of strategic transport planning process. This is done by presenting a method for pluralistic backcasting, which is defined as a process where multiple visions of the future are developed in a participatory, interdisciplinary process using the Delphi method. Further, the pathways to the alternative visions are constructed with a set of policy packages in a collaborative process with key stakeholders. The pluralistic backcasting approach outlined in the paper presents a set of practical tools to support development and implementation of climate strategies and policy programmes for transport. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of backcasting. The approach is tested with a case study of multiple visions of the future on CO2 emissions for transport in Finland up to the year 2050, including the identification of required policy packages to achieve the visions.

AB - Traditionally backcasting studies in the field transport are based on a single normative vision (often with clearly stated targets) and alternative pathways are then developed to reach that vision. This paper expands the discussion on the role and importance of backcasting towards using multiple visions as a part of strategic transport planning process. This is done by presenting a method for pluralistic backcasting, which is defined as a process where multiple visions of the future are developed in a participatory, interdisciplinary process using the Delphi method. Further, the pathways to the alternative visions are constructed with a set of policy packages in a collaborative process with key stakeholders. The pluralistic backcasting approach outlined in the paper presents a set of practical tools to support development and implementation of climate strategies and policy programmes for transport. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of backcasting. The approach is tested with a case study of multiple visions of the future on CO2 emissions for transport in Finland up to the year 2050, including the identification of required policy packages to achieve the visions.

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