Pluralistic backcasting: Integrating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy

Anu Tuominen, P. Tapio, V. Varho, Tuuli Järvi, D. Banister

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    37 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Traditionally backcasting studies in the field transport are based on a single normative vision (often with clearly stated targets) and alternative pathways are then developed to reach that vision. This paper expands the discussion on the role and importance of backcasting towards using multiple visions as a part of strategic transport planning process. This is done by presenting a method for pluralistic backcasting, which is defined as a process where multiple visions of the future are developed in a participatory, interdisciplinary process using the Delphi method. Further, the pathways to the alternative visions are constructed with a set of policy packages in a collaborative process with key stakeholders. The pluralistic backcasting approach outlined in the paper presents a set of practical tools to support development and implementation of climate strategies and policy programmes for transport. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of backcasting. The approach is tested with a case study of multiple visions of the future on CO2 emissions for transport in Finland up to the year 2050, including the identification of required policy packages to achieve the visions.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)41 - 58
    JournalFutures
    Volume60
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

    Fingerprint

    climate policy
    environmental policy
    planning process
    Finland
    stakeholder
    climate
    policy
    Climate policy
    method

    Keywords

    • transport
    • emissions
    • carbon dioxide
    • backcasting
    • policy packages

    Cite this

    Tuominen, Anu ; Tapio, P. ; Varho, V. ; Järvi, Tuuli ; Banister, D. / Pluralistic backcasting : Integrating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy. In: Futures. 2014 ; Vol. 60. pp. 41 - 58.
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    abstract = "Traditionally backcasting studies in the field transport are based on a single normative vision (often with clearly stated targets) and alternative pathways are then developed to reach that vision. This paper expands the discussion on the role and importance of backcasting towards using multiple visions as a part of strategic transport planning process. This is done by presenting a method for pluralistic backcasting, which is defined as a process where multiple visions of the future are developed in a participatory, interdisciplinary process using the Delphi method. Further, the pathways to the alternative visions are constructed with a set of policy packages in a collaborative process with key stakeholders. The pluralistic backcasting approach outlined in the paper presents a set of practical tools to support development and implementation of climate strategies and policy programmes for transport. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of backcasting. The approach is tested with a case study of multiple visions of the future on CO2 emissions for transport in Finland up to the year 2050, including the identification of required policy packages to achieve the visions.",
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    Pluralistic backcasting : Integrating multiple visions with policy packages for transport climate policy. / Tuominen, Anu; Tapio, P.; Varho, V.; Järvi, Tuuli; Banister, D.

    In: Futures, Vol. 60, 2014, p. 41 - 58.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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    AU - Tuominen, Anu

    AU - Tapio, P.

    AU - Varho, V.

    AU - Järvi, Tuuli

    AU - Banister, D.

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