Potential deployment of CCS in Finland under low carbon scenarios

Carbon capture and storage is generally considered an essential technology option that will be needed for achieving deep emission reductions already by 2050. However, the development of CCS technology still faces many challenges. Most of the CO2 capture processes are currently very energy intensive and further development is needed to bring the costs down. In addition, the CO2 captured needs to be transported to a suitable storage site for secure and permanent storage, which remains perhaps the most controversial part of the technology. The individual technology and concept studies of the Carbon Capture and Storage Program (CCSP) have produced numerous up-to-date technology characterizations. The main objective of present study was to utilize the improved technology assessments for a long-term energy system analysis, making a broader analysis of the potential and significance of CCS in FInland. The analysis was made in an integrated context, using a large energy system model for consistently taking into account interactions between various decision-makers at different levels of the energy system. The work was carried out by exploring a few scenarios based on different storylines for achieving a low-carbon economy in Finland and all Europe by 2050. The results indicate that CCS based on fossil fuel does not have any notable potential in Finland. On the other hand, due to large biomass resources and utilization potential in the energy sector, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) does appear to have a considerable potential of reducing CO2 emissions by about 15 Mt per year, of which power and heat generation accounts for 5-8 Mt, pulp and paper sector for 4-7 Mt, and biofuel refineries for about 3 Mt. The availability of CCS would reduce the total annual direct costs by up to 800 M in Finland, and up to 60 billion in Europe as a whole. CCS would also be valuable for maintaining flexibility when integrating large amounts of variable renewable electricity generation in the power system.