Prediction errors and balancing costs for wind power production in Finland

Hannele Holttinen, Pirkko Saarikivi, Sami Repo, Jussi Ikäheimo, Göran Koreneff

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

Abstract

In Finland, as there is no feed-in tariff, the wind power producers have to make contracts on how the electricity is sold and also make contracts for balance settlement. For this paper, wind power production is estimated 1–38 hours ahead for wind turbines located in 4 small clusters about 380 km apart on the West coast of Finland. Wind speed forecasts from the very-high-resolution ETA meteorological forecast model run by Foreca Ltd are used together with two production forecast models, which employ neural networks developed by Cybersoft and time series modeling by VTT. To show the effect of even more spread wind power production in Finland, prediction errors are determined for both one site, one producer and for the whole West Coast of Finland. Balancing costs resulting from day-ahead forecasts are estimated with year 2004 price data. Some example weeks are taken to examine the possibilities of improving the meteorological prediction for wind speeds.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of 6th International Workshop on Large-scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms
Subtitle of host publicationDelft, Netherland, 26-28 October 2006
Pages113-120
Publication statusPublished - 2006
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication

Fingerprint

wind power
prediction
cost
wind velocity
coast
wind turbine
electricity
time series
forecast
modeling
contract

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • neural network applications
  • time series
  • wind energy
  • weather forecasting
  • electricity markets
  • balancing costs

Cite this

Holttinen, H., Saarikivi, P., Repo, S., Ikäheimo, J., & Koreneff, G. (2006). Prediction errors and balancing costs for wind power production in Finland. In Proceedings of 6th International Workshop on Large-scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms: Delft, Netherland, 26-28 October 2006 (pp. 113-120)
Holttinen, Hannele ; Saarikivi, Pirkko ; Repo, Sami ; Ikäheimo, Jussi ; Koreneff, Göran. / Prediction errors and balancing costs for wind power production in Finland. Proceedings of 6th International Workshop on Large-scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms: Delft, Netherland, 26-28 October 2006. 2006. pp. 113-120
@inproceedings{f20e18b4073740c2b7d898eb6f7427d0,
title = "Prediction errors and balancing costs for wind power production in Finland",
abstract = "In Finland, as there is no feed-in tariff, the wind power producers have to make contracts on how the electricity is sold and also make contracts for balance settlement. For this paper, wind power production is estimated 1–38 hours ahead for wind turbines located in 4 small clusters about 380 km apart on the West coast of Finland. Wind speed forecasts from the very-high-resolution ETA meteorological forecast model run by Foreca Ltd are used together with two production forecast models, which employ neural networks developed by Cybersoft and time series modeling by VTT. To show the effect of even more spread wind power production in Finland, prediction errors are determined for both one site, one producer and for the whole West Coast of Finland. Balancing costs resulting from day-ahead forecasts are estimated with year 2004 price data. Some example weeks are taken to examine the possibilities of improving the meteorological prediction for wind speeds.",
keywords = "Forecasting, neural network applications, time series, wind energy, weather forecasting, electricity markets, balancing costs",
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Holttinen, H, Saarikivi, P, Repo, S, Ikäheimo, J & Koreneff, G 2006, Prediction errors and balancing costs for wind power production in Finland. in Proceedings of 6th International Workshop on Large-scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms: Delft, Netherland, 26-28 October 2006. pp. 113-120.

Prediction errors and balancing costs for wind power production in Finland. / Holttinen, Hannele; Saarikivi, Pirkko; Repo, Sami; Ikäheimo, Jussi; Koreneff, Göran.

Proceedings of 6th International Workshop on Large-scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms: Delft, Netherland, 26-28 October 2006. 2006. p. 113-120.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Prediction errors and balancing costs for wind power production in Finland

AU - Holttinen, Hannele

AU - Saarikivi, Pirkko

AU - Repo, Sami

AU - Ikäheimo, Jussi

AU - Koreneff, Göran

PY - 2006

Y1 - 2006

N2 - In Finland, as there is no feed-in tariff, the wind power producers have to make contracts on how the electricity is sold and also make contracts for balance settlement. For this paper, wind power production is estimated 1–38 hours ahead for wind turbines located in 4 small clusters about 380 km apart on the West coast of Finland. Wind speed forecasts from the very-high-resolution ETA meteorological forecast model run by Foreca Ltd are used together with two production forecast models, which employ neural networks developed by Cybersoft and time series modeling by VTT. To show the effect of even more spread wind power production in Finland, prediction errors are determined for both one site, one producer and for the whole West Coast of Finland. Balancing costs resulting from day-ahead forecasts are estimated with year 2004 price data. Some example weeks are taken to examine the possibilities of improving the meteorological prediction for wind speeds.

AB - In Finland, as there is no feed-in tariff, the wind power producers have to make contracts on how the electricity is sold and also make contracts for balance settlement. For this paper, wind power production is estimated 1–38 hours ahead for wind turbines located in 4 small clusters about 380 km apart on the West coast of Finland. Wind speed forecasts from the very-high-resolution ETA meteorological forecast model run by Foreca Ltd are used together with two production forecast models, which employ neural networks developed by Cybersoft and time series modeling by VTT. To show the effect of even more spread wind power production in Finland, prediction errors are determined for both one site, one producer and for the whole West Coast of Finland. Balancing costs resulting from day-ahead forecasts are estimated with year 2004 price data. Some example weeks are taken to examine the possibilities of improving the meteorological prediction for wind speeds.

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KW - neural network applications

KW - time series

KW - wind energy

KW - weather forecasting

KW - electricity markets

KW - balancing costs

M3 - Conference article in proceedings

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BT - Proceedings of 6th International Workshop on Large-scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms

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Holttinen H, Saarikivi P, Repo S, Ikäheimo J, Koreneff G. Prediction errors and balancing costs for wind power production in Finland. In Proceedings of 6th International Workshop on Large-scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms: Delft, Netherland, 26-28 October 2006. 2006. p. 113-120