Probabilistic Fire Simulator: Theory and User's Manual for Version 1.2

Simo Hostikka, Olavi Keski-Rahkonen, Timo Korhonen

    Research output: Book/ReportReport


    Risk analysis tool is developed for computation of the distributions of fire model output variables. The tool, called Probabilistic Fire Simulator, combines Monte Carlo simulation and CFAST two-zone fire model. This document describes the physical models and contains a detailed user's manual. In the applications, the tool is used to estimate the failure probability of redundant cables in a cable tunnel fire, and the failure and smoke filling probabilities of electronics room during a fire of an electronics cabinet. Sensitivity of the output variables to the input variables is calculated in terms of the rank order correlations. Various steps of the simulation process, i.e. data collection, generation of the input distributions, modelling assumptions, definition of the output variables and the actual simulation, are described.
    Original languageEnglish
    Place of PublicationEspoo
    PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
    Number of pages77
    ISBN (Electronic)951-38-6236-4
    ISBN (Print)951-38-6235-6
    Publication statusPublished - 2003
    MoE publication typeD4 Published development or research report or study

    Publication series

    SeriesVTT Publications


    • fire prevention
    • fire safety
    • simulation
    • user manual
    • risk analysis
    • computation
    • calculations
    • models
    • estimation


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