### Abstract

Risk analysis tool is developed for computation of the
distributions of fire model output variables. The tool,
called Probabilistic Fire Simulator, combines Monte Carlo
simulation and CFAST two-zone fire model. This document
describes the physical models and contains a detailed
user's manual. In the applications, the tool is used to
estimate the failure probability of redundant cables in a
cable tunnel fire, and the failure and smoke filling
probabilities of electronics room during a fire of an
electronics cabinet. Sensitivity of the output variables
to the input variables is calculated in terms of the rank
order correlations. Various steps of the simulation
process, i.e. data collection, generation of the input
distributions, modelling assumptions, definition of the
output variables and the actual simulation, are
described.

Original language | English |
---|---|

Place of Publication | Espoo |

Publisher | VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland |

Number of pages | 77 |

ISBN (Electronic) | 951-38-6236-4 |

ISBN (Print) | 951-38-6235-6 |

Publication status | Published - 2003 |

MoE publication type | D4 Published development or research report or study |

### Publication series

Series | VTT Publications |
---|---|

Number | 503 |

ISSN | 1235-0621 |

### Keywords

- fire prevention
- fire safety
- simulation
- user manual
- risk analysis
- computation
- calculations
- models
- estimation

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## Cite this

Hostikka, S., Keski-Rahkonen, O., & Korhonen, T. (2003).

*Probabilistic Fire Simulator: Theory and User's Manual for Version 1.2*. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. VTT Publications, No. 503 http://www.vtt.fi/inf/pdf/publications/2003/P503.pdf