Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in low-seismicity regions: An investigation of sensitivity with a focus on Finland

Ludovic Fülöp; Päivi Mäntyniemi; Marianne Malm; Gabriel Toro; María J. Crespo; Timo Schmitt; Simon Burck; Pekka Välikangas

doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05666-4

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in low-seismicity regions: An investigation of sensitivity with a focus on Finland

Ludovic Fülöp, Päivi Mäntyniemi^*, Marianne Malm, Gabriel Toro, María J. Crespo, Timo Schmitt, Simon Burck, Pekka Välikangas

^*Corresponding author for this work

BA5505 Structural materials

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Scientific › peer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We investigate probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in low-seismicity regions in which epistemic uncertainties are largely due to the sparsity of data, with a focus on Finland, northern Europe. We investigate the sensitivity of site-specific PSHA outcomes to different choices of basic input parameters, starting from preexisting PSHA models of the nuclear licensees in the country, without producing a final hazard curve. The outcome shows that the parameters and models needed to estimate future seismicity rates from actual observations, in particular the b value, seismicity rates, and the largest possible magnitude, M_max, as well as the median ground-motion prediction equation, play significant roles. The sensitivity also depends on the spectral frequency; for example, the effect of M_max is significant especially for a low-frequency hazard at annual frequency of exceedance 10⁻⁵ but more moderate for peak ground acceleration. The delineation of seismic source zones (SSZs) remains ambiguous in regions of low seismicity. This, combined with the dominance of the host SSZ and its seismicity parameters, may have a substantial impact on the outcome. Our results are quantitatively applicable to Finland, but may also be of relevance to other low-seismicity regions in Europe and elsewhere. For future work we recommend the exploration of PSHA sensitivity with focus on the host SSZ with its immediate vicinity and the b value around the site of interest.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	111-132
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume	116
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05666-4
Publication status	Published - Mar 2023
MoE publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

Funding

The nuclear licensees Fortum Power and Heat Oy, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, and Fennovoima Oy are acknowledged for their sponsorship of the SENSEI project and for providing documentation of their preexisting PSHA studies. STUK is acknowledged for contributing both financially and by providing the logistic framework for the project. The project meetings were forums of fruitful discussions and provided the fundaments for carrying out this work. Thanks to Kati Oinonen from the Institute of Seismology, University of Helsinki, for preparing Figure . Thanks to Cathryn Primrose-Mathisen who provided professional English language assistance during the preparation of this article. She was not responsible for reviewing the final version. Three anonymous reviewers are thanked for their thorough review and constructive suggestions that significantly improved the original manuscript. Editor-in-Chief John J. Clague is thanked for his assistance.

Keywords

Finland
Low-seismicity regions
Nuclear power plant
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
Sensitivity investigation

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/s11069-022-05666-4Licence: CC BY

Cite this

@article{80646bfce8734f4b92dc88b82f1ef21f,

title = "Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in low-seismicity regions: An investigation of sensitivity with a focus on Finland",

abstract = "We investigate probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in low-seismicity regions in which epistemic uncertainties are largely due to the sparsity of data, with a focus on Finland, northern Europe. We investigate the sensitivity of site-specific PSHA outcomes to different choices of basic input parameters, starting from preexisting PSHA models of the nuclear licensees in the country, without producing a final hazard curve. The outcome shows that the parameters and models needed to estimate future seismicity rates from actual observations, in particular the b value, seismicity rates, and the largest possible magnitude, Mmax, as well as the median ground-motion prediction equation, play significant roles. The sensitivity also depends on the spectral frequency; for example, the effect of Mmax is significant especially for a low-frequency hazard at annual frequency of exceedance 10−5 but more moderate for peak ground acceleration. The delineation of seismic source zones (SSZs) remains ambiguous in regions of low seismicity. This, combined with the dominance of the host SSZ and its seismicity parameters, may have a substantial impact on the outcome. Our results are quantitatively applicable to Finland, but may also be of relevance to other low-seismicity regions in Europe and elsewhere. For future work we recommend the exploration of PSHA sensitivity with focus on the host SSZ with its immediate vicinity and the b value around the site of interest.",

keywords = "Finland, Low-seismicity regions, Nuclear power plant, Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, Sensitivity investigation",

author = "Ludovic F{\"u}l{\"o}p and P{\"a}ivi M{\"a}ntyniemi and Marianne Malm and Gabriel Toro and Crespo, \{Mar{\'i}a J.\} and Timo Schmitt and Simon Burck and Pekka V{\"a}likangas",

note = "Funding Information: The nuclear licensees Fortum Power and Heat Oy, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, and Fennovoima Oy are acknowledged for their sponsorship of the SENSEI project and for providing documentation of their preexisting PSHA studies. STUK is acknowledged for contributing both financially and by providing the logistic framework for the project. The project meetings were forums of fruitful discussions and provided the fundaments for carrying out this work. Thanks to Kati Oinonen from the Institute of Seismology, University of Helsinki, for preparing Figure . Thanks to Cathryn Primrose-Mathisen who provided professional English language assistance during the preparation of this article. She was not responsible for reviewing the final version. Three anonymous reviewers are thanked for their thorough review and constructive suggestions that significantly improved the original manuscript. Editor-in-Chief John J. Clague is thanked for his assistance. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",

year = "2023",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1007/s11069-022-05666-4",

language = "English",

volume = "116",

pages = "111--132",

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T1 - Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in low-seismicity regions

T2 - An investigation of sensitivity with a focus on Finland

AU - Fülöp, Ludovic

AU - Mäntyniemi, Päivi

AU - Malm, Marianne

AU - Toro, Gabriel

AU - Crespo, María J.

AU - Schmitt, Timo

AU - Burck, Simon

AU - Välikangas, Pekka

N1 - Funding Information: The nuclear licensees Fortum Power and Heat Oy, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, and Fennovoima Oy are acknowledged for their sponsorship of the SENSEI project and for providing documentation of their preexisting PSHA studies. STUK is acknowledged for contributing both financially and by providing the logistic framework for the project. The project meetings were forums of fruitful discussions and provided the fundaments for carrying out this work. Thanks to Kati Oinonen from the Institute of Seismology, University of Helsinki, for preparing Figure . Thanks to Cathryn Primrose-Mathisen who provided professional English language assistance during the preparation of this article. She was not responsible for reviewing the final version. Three anonymous reviewers are thanked for their thorough review and constructive suggestions that significantly improved the original manuscript. Editor-in-Chief John J. Clague is thanked for his assistance. Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).

PY - 2023/3

Y1 - 2023/3

N2 - We investigate probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in low-seismicity regions in which epistemic uncertainties are largely due to the sparsity of data, with a focus on Finland, northern Europe. We investigate the sensitivity of site-specific PSHA outcomes to different choices of basic input parameters, starting from preexisting PSHA models of the nuclear licensees in the country, without producing a final hazard curve. The outcome shows that the parameters and models needed to estimate future seismicity rates from actual observations, in particular the b value, seismicity rates, and the largest possible magnitude, Mmax, as well as the median ground-motion prediction equation, play significant roles. The sensitivity also depends on the spectral frequency; for example, the effect of Mmax is significant especially for a low-frequency hazard at annual frequency of exceedance 10−5 but more moderate for peak ground acceleration. The delineation of seismic source zones (SSZs) remains ambiguous in regions of low seismicity. This, combined with the dominance of the host SSZ and its seismicity parameters, may have a substantial impact on the outcome. Our results are quantitatively applicable to Finland, but may also be of relevance to other low-seismicity regions in Europe and elsewhere. For future work we recommend the exploration of PSHA sensitivity with focus on the host SSZ with its immediate vicinity and the b value around the site of interest.

AB - We investigate probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in low-seismicity regions in which epistemic uncertainties are largely due to the sparsity of data, with a focus on Finland, northern Europe. We investigate the sensitivity of site-specific PSHA outcomes to different choices of basic input parameters, starting from preexisting PSHA models of the nuclear licensees in the country, without producing a final hazard curve. The outcome shows that the parameters and models needed to estimate future seismicity rates from actual observations, in particular the b value, seismicity rates, and the largest possible magnitude, Mmax, as well as the median ground-motion prediction equation, play significant roles. The sensitivity also depends on the spectral frequency; for example, the effect of Mmax is significant especially for a low-frequency hazard at annual frequency of exceedance 10−5 but more moderate for peak ground acceleration. The delineation of seismic source zones (SSZs) remains ambiguous in regions of low seismicity. This, combined with the dominance of the host SSZ and its seismicity parameters, may have a substantial impact on the outcome. Our results are quantitatively applicable to Finland, but may also be of relevance to other low-seismicity regions in Europe and elsewhere. For future work we recommend the exploration of PSHA sensitivity with focus on the host SSZ with its immediate vicinity and the b value around the site of interest.

KW - Finland

KW - Low-seismicity regions

KW - Nuclear power plant

KW - Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

KW - Sensitivity investigation

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U2 - 10.1007/s11069-022-05666-4

DO - 10.1007/s11069-022-05666-4

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85140221994

SN - 0921-030X

VL - 116

SP - 111

EP - 132

JO - Natural Hazards

JF - Natural Hazards

IS - 1

ER -

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in low-seismicity regions: An investigation of sensitivity with a focus on Finland

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

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SENSEI+: Sensitivity study of seismic hazard prediction

Cite this

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in low-seismicity regions: An investigation of sensitivity with a focus on Finland

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Projects

SENSEI+: Sensitivity study of seismic hazard prediction

Cite this