Probabilistic simulation of fire scenarios

Simo Hostikka (Corresponding Author), Olavi Keski-Rahkonen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

74 Citations (Scopus)


A risk analysis tool is developed for computation of the distributions of fire model output variables. The tool, called Probabilistic Fire Simulator (PFS), combines Monte Carlo simulation and CFAST, a two-zone fire model. In this work, the tool is used to estimate the failure probability of redundant cables in a cable tunnel fire, and the failure and smoke filling probabilities in an electronics room during an electronics cabinet fire. Sensitivity of the output variables to the input variables is calculated in terms of the rank order correlations. The use of the rank order correlations allows the user to identify both modelling parameters and actual facility properties that have the most influence on the results. Various steps of the simulation process, i.e. data collection, generation of the input distributions, modelling assumptions, definition of the output variables and the actual simulation, are described.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)301-311
JournalNuclear Engineering and Design
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2003
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed


  • fire modelling
  • fire safety
  • fire simulation


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