Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes

PREMIUM benchmark

Tomasz Skorek (Corresponding Author), Agnès de Crécy, Andriy Kovtonyuk, Alessandro Petruzzi, Rafael Mendizábal, Elsa de Alfonso, Francesc Reventós, Jordi Freixa, Christine Sarrette, Milos Kyncl, Rostislav Pernica, Jean Baccou, Fabrice Fouet, Pierre Probst, Bub Dong Chung, Tran Tranh Tram, Deog Yeon Oh, Alexey Gusev, Alexander Falkov, Yuri Shvestov & 10 others Dong Li, Xiaojing Liu, Jinzhao Zhang, Torsti Alku, Joona Kurki, Wadim Jäger, Victor Sánchez, Damar Wicaksono, Omar Zerkak, Andreas Pautz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

PREMIUM (Post BEMUSE Reflood Models Input Uncertainty Methods) was an activity launched with the aim of pushing forward the methods of quantification of physical model uncertainties in thermal-hydraulic codes. The benchmark PREMIUM was addressed to all who apply uncertainty evaluation methods based on input uncertainties quantification and propagation. The benchmark was based on a selected case of uncertainty analysis application to the simulation of quench front propagation in an experimental test facility. Applied to an experiment, enabled evaluation and confirmation of the quantified probability distribution functions on the basis of experimental data. The scope of the benchmark comprised a review of the existing methods, selection of potentially important uncertain input parameters, quantification of the ranges and distributions of the identified parameters using experimental results of tests performed on the FEBA test facility, verification of the performed quantification on the basis of tests performed at the FEBA test facility and validation on the basis of blind calculations of the Reflood 2-D PERICLES experiment. The benchmark has shown dependency of the results on the applied methodology and a strong user effect. The conclusion was that a systematic approach for the quantification of model uncertainties is necessary.

Original languageEnglish
Article number110199
JournalNuclear Engineering and Design
Volume354
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 11 Jul 2019
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Fingerprint

hydraulics
test facilities
Hydraulics
Test facilities
propagation
pushing
evaluation
probability distribution functions
uncertainty analysis
Uncertainty analysis
methodology
Probability distributions
experiment
Distribution functions
Hot Temperature
Uncertainty
code
test
method
Experiments

Keywords

  • Combined effect tests
  • Input uncertainties propagation
  • Model uncertainties
  • Thermal-hydraulic codes
  • Uncertainties quantification

Cite this

Skorek, T., de Crécy, A., Kovtonyuk, A., Petruzzi, A., Mendizábal, R., de Alfonso, E., ... Pautz, A. (Accepted/In press). Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes: PREMIUM benchmark. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 354, [110199]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110199
Skorek, Tomasz ; de Crécy, Agnès ; Kovtonyuk, Andriy ; Petruzzi, Alessandro ; Mendizábal, Rafael ; de Alfonso, Elsa ; Reventós, Francesc ; Freixa, Jordi ; Sarrette, Christine ; Kyncl, Milos ; Pernica, Rostislav ; Baccou, Jean ; Fouet, Fabrice ; Probst, Pierre ; Chung, Bub Dong ; Tram, Tran Tranh ; Oh, Deog Yeon ; Gusev, Alexey ; Falkov, Alexander ; Shvestov, Yuri ; Li, Dong ; Liu, Xiaojing ; Zhang, Jinzhao ; Alku, Torsti ; Kurki, Joona ; Jäger, Wadim ; Sánchez, Victor ; Wicaksono, Damar ; Zerkak, Omar ; Pautz, Andreas. / Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes : PREMIUM benchmark. In: Nuclear Engineering and Design. 2019 ; Vol. 354.
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title = "Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes: PREMIUM benchmark",
abstract = "PREMIUM (Post BEMUSE Reflood Models Input Uncertainty Methods) was an activity launched with the aim of pushing forward the methods of quantification of physical model uncertainties in thermal-hydraulic codes. The benchmark PREMIUM was addressed to all who apply uncertainty evaluation methods based on input uncertainties quantification and propagation. The benchmark was based on a selected case of uncertainty analysis application to the simulation of quench front propagation in an experimental test facility. Applied to an experiment, enabled evaluation and confirmation of the quantified probability distribution functions on the basis of experimental data. The scope of the benchmark comprised a review of the existing methods, selection of potentially important uncertain input parameters, quantification of the ranges and distributions of the identified parameters using experimental results of tests performed on the FEBA test facility, verification of the performed quantification on the basis of tests performed at the FEBA test facility and validation on the basis of blind calculations of the Reflood 2-D PERICLES experiment. The benchmark has shown dependency of the results on the applied methodology and a strong user effect. The conclusion was that a systematic approach for the quantification of model uncertainties is necessary.",
keywords = "Combined effect tests, Input uncertainties propagation, Model uncertainties, Thermal-hydraulic codes, Uncertainties quantification",
author = "Tomasz Skorek and {de Cr{\'e}cy}, Agn{\`e}s and Andriy Kovtonyuk and Alessandro Petruzzi and Rafael Mendiz{\'a}bal and {de Alfonso}, Elsa and Francesc Revent{\'o}s and Jordi Freixa and Christine Sarrette and Milos Kyncl and Rostislav Pernica and Jean Baccou and Fabrice Fouet and Pierre Probst and Chung, {Bub Dong} and Tram, {Tran Tranh} and Oh, {Deog Yeon} and Alexey Gusev and Alexander Falkov and Yuri Shvestov and Dong Li and Xiaojing Liu and Jinzhao Zhang and Torsti Alku and Joona Kurki and Wadim J{\"a}ger and Victor S{\'a}nchez and Damar Wicaksono and Omar Zerkak and Andreas Pautz",
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Skorek, T, de Crécy, A, Kovtonyuk, A, Petruzzi, A, Mendizábal, R, de Alfonso, E, Reventós, F, Freixa, J, Sarrette, C, Kyncl, M, Pernica, R, Baccou, J, Fouet, F, Probst, P, Chung, BD, Tram, TT, Oh, DY, Gusev, A, Falkov, A, Shvestov, Y, Li, D, Liu, X, Zhang, J, Alku, T, Kurki, J, Jäger, W, Sánchez, V, Wicaksono, D, Zerkak, O & Pautz, A 2019, 'Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes: PREMIUM benchmark', Nuclear Engineering and Design, vol. 354, 110199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110199

Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes : PREMIUM benchmark. / Skorek, Tomasz (Corresponding Author); de Crécy, Agnès; Kovtonyuk, Andriy; Petruzzi, Alessandro; Mendizábal, Rafael; de Alfonso, Elsa; Reventós, Francesc; Freixa, Jordi; Sarrette, Christine; Kyncl, Milos; Pernica, Rostislav; Baccou, Jean; Fouet, Fabrice; Probst, Pierre; Chung, Bub Dong; Tram, Tran Tranh; Oh, Deog Yeon; Gusev, Alexey; Falkov, Alexander; Shvestov, Yuri; Li, Dong; Liu, Xiaojing; Zhang, Jinzhao; Alku, Torsti; Kurki, Joona; Jäger, Wadim; Sánchez, Victor; Wicaksono, Damar; Zerkak, Omar; Pautz, Andreas.

In: Nuclear Engineering and Design, Vol. 354, 110199, 01.12.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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T1 - Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes

T2 - PREMIUM benchmark

AU - Skorek, Tomasz

AU - de Crécy, Agnès

AU - Kovtonyuk, Andriy

AU - Petruzzi, Alessandro

AU - Mendizábal, Rafael

AU - de Alfonso, Elsa

AU - Reventós, Francesc

AU - Freixa, Jordi

AU - Sarrette, Christine

AU - Kyncl, Milos

AU - Pernica, Rostislav

AU - Baccou, Jean

AU - Fouet, Fabrice

AU - Probst, Pierre

AU - Chung, Bub Dong

AU - Tram, Tran Tranh

AU - Oh, Deog Yeon

AU - Gusev, Alexey

AU - Falkov, Alexander

AU - Shvestov, Yuri

AU - Li, Dong

AU - Liu, Xiaojing

AU - Zhang, Jinzhao

AU - Alku, Torsti

AU - Kurki, Joona

AU - Jäger, Wadim

AU - Sánchez, Victor

AU - Wicaksono, Damar

AU - Zerkak, Omar

AU - Pautz, Andreas

PY - 2019/7/11

Y1 - 2019/7/11

N2 - PREMIUM (Post BEMUSE Reflood Models Input Uncertainty Methods) was an activity launched with the aim of pushing forward the methods of quantification of physical model uncertainties in thermal-hydraulic codes. The benchmark PREMIUM was addressed to all who apply uncertainty evaluation methods based on input uncertainties quantification and propagation. The benchmark was based on a selected case of uncertainty analysis application to the simulation of quench front propagation in an experimental test facility. Applied to an experiment, enabled evaluation and confirmation of the quantified probability distribution functions on the basis of experimental data. The scope of the benchmark comprised a review of the existing methods, selection of potentially important uncertain input parameters, quantification of the ranges and distributions of the identified parameters using experimental results of tests performed on the FEBA test facility, verification of the performed quantification on the basis of tests performed at the FEBA test facility and validation on the basis of blind calculations of the Reflood 2-D PERICLES experiment. The benchmark has shown dependency of the results on the applied methodology and a strong user effect. The conclusion was that a systematic approach for the quantification of model uncertainties is necessary.

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KW - Combined effect tests

KW - Input uncertainties propagation

KW - Model uncertainties

KW - Thermal-hydraulic codes

KW - Uncertainties quantification

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U2 - 10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110199

DO - 10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110199

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JF - Nuclear Engineering and Design

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