Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes: PREMIUM benchmark

Tomasz Skorek (Corresponding Author), Agnès de Crécy, Andriy Kovtonyuk, Alessandro Petruzzi, Rafael Mendizábal, Elsa de Alfonso, Francesc Reventós, Jordi Freixa, Christine Sarrette, Milos Kyncl, Rostislav Pernica, Jean Baccou, Fabrice Fouet, Pierre Probst, Bub Dong Chung, Tran Tranh Tram, Deog Yeon Oh, Alexey Gusev, Alexander Falkov, Yuri ShvestovDong Li, Xiaojing Liu, Jinzhao Zhang, Torsti Alku, Joona Kurki, Wadim Jäger, Victor Sánchez, Damar Wicaksono, Omar Zerkak, Andreas Pautz

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

    2 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    PREMIUM (Post BEMUSE Reflood Models Input Uncertainty Methods) was an activity launched with the aim of pushing forward the methods of quantification of physical model uncertainties in thermal-hydraulic codes. The benchmark PREMIUM was addressed to all who apply uncertainty evaluation methods based on input uncertainties quantification and propagation. The benchmark was based on a selected case of uncertainty analysis application to the simulation of quench front propagation in an experimental test facility. Applied to an experiment, enabled evaluation and confirmation of the quantified probability distribution functions on the basis of experimental data. The scope of the benchmark comprised a review of the existing methods, selection of potentially important uncertain input parameters, quantification of the ranges and distributions of the identified parameters using experimental results of tests performed on the FEBA test facility, verification of the performed quantification on the basis of tests performed at the FEBA test facility and validation on the basis of blind calculations of the Reflood 2-D PERICLES experiment. The benchmark has shown dependency of the results on the applied methodology and a strong user effect. The conclusion was that a systematic approach for the quantification of model uncertainties is necessary.

    Original languageEnglish
    Article number110199
    JournalNuclear Engineering and Design
    Volume354
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2019
    MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

    Fingerprint

    hydraulics
    test facilities
    Hydraulics
    Test facilities
    propagation
    pushing
    evaluation
    probability distribution functions
    uncertainty analysis
    Uncertainty analysis
    methodology
    Probability distributions
    experiment
    Distribution functions
    Hot Temperature
    Uncertainty
    code
    test
    method
    Experiments

    Keywords

    • Combined effect tests
    • Input uncertainties propagation
    • Model uncertainties
    • Thermal-hydraulic codes
    • Uncertainties quantification

    Cite this

    Skorek, T., de Crécy, A., Kovtonyuk, A., Petruzzi, A., Mendizábal, R., de Alfonso, E., ... Pautz, A. (2019). Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes: PREMIUM benchmark. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 354, [110199]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110199
    Skorek, Tomasz ; de Crécy, Agnès ; Kovtonyuk, Andriy ; Petruzzi, Alessandro ; Mendizábal, Rafael ; de Alfonso, Elsa ; Reventós, Francesc ; Freixa, Jordi ; Sarrette, Christine ; Kyncl, Milos ; Pernica, Rostislav ; Baccou, Jean ; Fouet, Fabrice ; Probst, Pierre ; Chung, Bub Dong ; Tram, Tran Tranh ; Oh, Deog Yeon ; Gusev, Alexey ; Falkov, Alexander ; Shvestov, Yuri ; Li, Dong ; Liu, Xiaojing ; Zhang, Jinzhao ; Alku, Torsti ; Kurki, Joona ; Jäger, Wadim ; Sánchez, Victor ; Wicaksono, Damar ; Zerkak, Omar ; Pautz, Andreas. / Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes : PREMIUM benchmark. In: Nuclear Engineering and Design. 2019 ; Vol. 354.
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    abstract = "PREMIUM (Post BEMUSE Reflood Models Input Uncertainty Methods) was an activity launched with the aim of pushing forward the methods of quantification of physical model uncertainties in thermal-hydraulic codes. The benchmark PREMIUM was addressed to all who apply uncertainty evaluation methods based on input uncertainties quantification and propagation. The benchmark was based on a selected case of uncertainty analysis application to the simulation of quench front propagation in an experimental test facility. Applied to an experiment, enabled evaluation and confirmation of the quantified probability distribution functions on the basis of experimental data. The scope of the benchmark comprised a review of the existing methods, selection of potentially important uncertain input parameters, quantification of the ranges and distributions of the identified parameters using experimental results of tests performed on the FEBA test facility, verification of the performed quantification on the basis of tests performed at the FEBA test facility and validation on the basis of blind calculations of the Reflood 2-D PERICLES experiment. The benchmark has shown dependency of the results on the applied methodology and a strong user effect. The conclusion was that a systematic approach for the quantification of model uncertainties is necessary.",
    keywords = "Combined effect tests, Input uncertainties propagation, Model uncertainties, Thermal-hydraulic codes, Uncertainties quantification",
    author = "Tomasz Skorek and {de Cr{\'e}cy}, Agn{\`e}s and Andriy Kovtonyuk and Alessandro Petruzzi and Rafael Mendiz{\'a}bal and {de Alfonso}, Elsa and Francesc Revent{\'o}s and Jordi Freixa and Christine Sarrette and Milos Kyncl and Rostislav Pernica and Jean Baccou and Fabrice Fouet and Pierre Probst and Chung, {Bub Dong} and Tram, {Tran Tranh} and Oh, {Deog Yeon} and Alexey Gusev and Alexander Falkov and Yuri Shvestov and Dong Li and Xiaojing Liu and Jinzhao Zhang and Torsti Alku and Joona Kurki and Wadim J{\"a}ger and Victor S{\'a}nchez and Damar Wicaksono and Omar Zerkak and Andreas Pautz",
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    Skorek, T, de Crécy, A, Kovtonyuk, A, Petruzzi, A, Mendizábal, R, de Alfonso, E, Reventós, F, Freixa, J, Sarrette, C, Kyncl, M, Pernica, R, Baccou, J, Fouet, F, Probst, P, Chung, BD, Tram, TT, Oh, DY, Gusev, A, Falkov, A, Shvestov, Y, Li, D, Liu, X, Zhang, J, Alku, T, Kurki, J, Jäger, W, Sánchez, V, Wicaksono, D, Zerkak, O & Pautz, A 2019, 'Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes: PREMIUM benchmark', Nuclear Engineering and Design, vol. 354, 110199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2019.110199

    Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes : PREMIUM benchmark. / Skorek, Tomasz (Corresponding Author); de Crécy, Agnès; Kovtonyuk, Andriy; Petruzzi, Alessandro; Mendizábal, Rafael; de Alfonso, Elsa; Reventós, Francesc; Freixa, Jordi; Sarrette, Christine; Kyncl, Milos; Pernica, Rostislav; Baccou, Jean; Fouet, Fabrice; Probst, Pierre; Chung, Bub Dong; Tram, Tran Tranh; Oh, Deog Yeon; Gusev, Alexey; Falkov, Alexander; Shvestov, Yuri; Li, Dong; Liu, Xiaojing; Zhang, Jinzhao; Alku, Torsti; Kurki, Joona; Jäger, Wadim; Sánchez, Victor; Wicaksono, Damar; Zerkak, Omar; Pautz, Andreas.

    In: Nuclear Engineering and Design, Vol. 354, 110199, 01.12.2019.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

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    T1 - Quantification of the uncertainty of the physical models in the system thermal-hydraulic codes

    T2 - PREMIUM benchmark

    AU - Skorek, Tomasz

    AU - de Crécy, Agnès

    AU - Kovtonyuk, Andriy

    AU - Petruzzi, Alessandro

    AU - Mendizábal, Rafael

    AU - de Alfonso, Elsa

    AU - Reventós, Francesc

    AU - Freixa, Jordi

    AU - Sarrette, Christine

    AU - Kyncl, Milos

    AU - Pernica, Rostislav

    AU - Baccou, Jean

    AU - Fouet, Fabrice

    AU - Probst, Pierre

    AU - Chung, Bub Dong

    AU - Tram, Tran Tranh

    AU - Oh, Deog Yeon

    AU - Gusev, Alexey

    AU - Falkov, Alexander

    AU - Shvestov, Yuri

    AU - Li, Dong

    AU - Liu, Xiaojing

    AU - Zhang, Jinzhao

    AU - Alku, Torsti

    AU - Kurki, Joona

    AU - Jäger, Wadim

    AU - Sánchez, Victor

    AU - Wicaksono, Damar

    AU - Zerkak, Omar

    AU - Pautz, Andreas

    PY - 2019/12/1

    Y1 - 2019/12/1

    N2 - PREMIUM (Post BEMUSE Reflood Models Input Uncertainty Methods) was an activity launched with the aim of pushing forward the methods of quantification of physical model uncertainties in thermal-hydraulic codes. The benchmark PREMIUM was addressed to all who apply uncertainty evaluation methods based on input uncertainties quantification and propagation. The benchmark was based on a selected case of uncertainty analysis application to the simulation of quench front propagation in an experimental test facility. Applied to an experiment, enabled evaluation and confirmation of the quantified probability distribution functions on the basis of experimental data. The scope of the benchmark comprised a review of the existing methods, selection of potentially important uncertain input parameters, quantification of the ranges and distributions of the identified parameters using experimental results of tests performed on the FEBA test facility, verification of the performed quantification on the basis of tests performed at the FEBA test facility and validation on the basis of blind calculations of the Reflood 2-D PERICLES experiment. The benchmark has shown dependency of the results on the applied methodology and a strong user effect. The conclusion was that a systematic approach for the quantification of model uncertainties is necessary.

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    KW - Combined effect tests

    KW - Input uncertainties propagation

    KW - Model uncertainties

    KW - Thermal-hydraulic codes

    KW - Uncertainties quantification

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