Radiative climate forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in Finland

Finnish greenhouse gas emission histories (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFCs and substitutes) and some future scenarios are presented. The direct anthropogenic emissions from fossil and peat fuel use, agriculture and waste management are taken into account. In addition to these, the human-induced changes in the emissions and sinks of greenhouse gases from peatlands and forests are considered. The greenhouse impact of the emissions is expressed as global average radiative forcing. The impact caused by emissions in Finland is compared with global figures on absolute and per capita bases. At the moment the Finnish direct anthropogenic contribution to the global radiative forcing is approximately 4 mW m^-2 most of which is caused by CO₂, while the global value is about 2.5 W m^-2. If the human-induced changes of the biosphere since the 1920's (forests and peatlands) are included, the net Finnish contribution is about halved. In the future, the radiative forcing caused by Finnish anthropogenic emissions will continue to increase, and will remain higher than the present value during the next century even if strict emission reductions are assumed (∼ 3 % annually). The contribution of the biosphere remains significant in the future also in most considered scenarios, although its relative weight decreases.