Regional Climate model estimates for changes in Nordic extreme events

Lasse Makkonen, Leena Ruokolainen, Jouni Räisänen, Maria Tikanmäki

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Changes in extreme weather events with climate change were estimated for northern Europe by
Rossby Centre coupled atmosphere – Baltic Sea regional climate model simulations.
Two driving global climate models and two forcing scenarios were used. The estimates were made by comparing, at each
grid point, 50-year return values for the simulation periods of 1961–1990 and 2071–2100.
The most significant predicted changes in the study area are in the extremes of maximum and minimum air
temperatures. The increase in the extreme surface wind speed is mostly small. The 50-year return value
for the precipitation amount in five days is predicted to increase by over 50% in many areas.
The extreme snow water equivalent is predicted to decrease very significantly in most of the study area but increase in
some highland areas. Very heavy snow fall will become generally more frequent. From the point of view
of adapting structural design and community planning to climate change, the results suggest that the
emphasis should be in the design practices in regard to flooding.
The estimated changes in other structural design criteria are generally less significant or favourable.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)25-48
JournalGeophysica
Volume43
Issue number1-2
Publication statusPublished - 2007
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

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climate models
extreme event
regional climate
climate modeling
snow
climate change
estimates
structural design criteria
snow water equivalent
Baltic sea
surface wind
highlands
structural design
simulation
global climate
flooding
wind velocity
weather
planning
atmosphere

Cite this

Makkonen, Lasse ; Ruokolainen, Leena ; Räisänen, Jouni ; Tikanmäki, Maria. / Regional Climate model estimates for changes in Nordic extreme events. In: Geophysica. 2007 ; Vol. 43, No. 1-2. pp. 25-48.
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title = "Regional Climate model estimates for changes in Nordic extreme events",
abstract = "Changes in extreme weather events with climate change were estimated for northern Europe byRossby Centre coupled atmosphere – Baltic Sea regional climate model simulations. Two driving global climate models and two forcing scenarios were used. The estimates were made by comparing, at eachgrid point, 50-year return values for the simulation periods of 1961–1990 and 2071–2100. The most significant predicted changes in the study area are in the extremes of maximum and minimum airtemperatures. The increase in the extreme surface wind speed is mostly small. The 50-year return valuefor the precipitation amount in five days is predicted to increase by over 50{\%} in many areas. The extreme snow water equivalent is predicted to decrease very significantly in most of the study area but increase insome highland areas. Very heavy snow fall will become generally more frequent. From the point of viewof adapting structural design and community planning to climate change, the results suggest that theemphasis should be in the design practices in regard to flooding. The estimated changes in other structural design criteria are generally less significant or favourable.",
author = "Lasse Makkonen and Leena Ruokolainen and Jouni R{\"a}is{\"a}nen and Maria Tikanm{\"a}ki",
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Makkonen, L, Ruokolainen, L, Räisänen, J & Tikanmäki, M 2007, 'Regional Climate model estimates for changes in Nordic extreme events', Geophysica, vol. 43, no. 1-2, pp. 25-48.

Regional Climate model estimates for changes in Nordic extreme events. / Makkonen, Lasse; Ruokolainen, Leena; Räisänen, Jouni; Tikanmäki, Maria.

In: Geophysica, Vol. 43, No. 1-2, 2007, p. 25-48.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Regional Climate model estimates for changes in Nordic extreme events

AU - Makkonen, Lasse

AU - Ruokolainen, Leena

AU - Räisänen, Jouni

AU - Tikanmäki, Maria

N1 - Project code: 3253

PY - 2007

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N2 - Changes in extreme weather events with climate change were estimated for northern Europe byRossby Centre coupled atmosphere – Baltic Sea regional climate model simulations. Two driving global climate models and two forcing scenarios were used. The estimates were made by comparing, at eachgrid point, 50-year return values for the simulation periods of 1961–1990 and 2071–2100. The most significant predicted changes in the study area are in the extremes of maximum and minimum airtemperatures. The increase in the extreme surface wind speed is mostly small. The 50-year return valuefor the precipitation amount in five days is predicted to increase by over 50% in many areas. The extreme snow water equivalent is predicted to decrease very significantly in most of the study area but increase insome highland areas. Very heavy snow fall will become generally more frequent. From the point of viewof adapting structural design and community planning to climate change, the results suggest that theemphasis should be in the design practices in regard to flooding. The estimated changes in other structural design criteria are generally less significant or favourable.

AB - Changes in extreme weather events with climate change were estimated for northern Europe byRossby Centre coupled atmosphere – Baltic Sea regional climate model simulations. Two driving global climate models and two forcing scenarios were used. The estimates were made by comparing, at eachgrid point, 50-year return values for the simulation periods of 1961–1990 and 2071–2100. The most significant predicted changes in the study area are in the extremes of maximum and minimum airtemperatures. The increase in the extreme surface wind speed is mostly small. The 50-year return valuefor the precipitation amount in five days is predicted to increase by over 50% in many areas. The extreme snow water equivalent is predicted to decrease very significantly in most of the study area but increase insome highland areas. Very heavy snow fall will become generally more frequent. From the point of viewof adapting structural design and community planning to climate change, the results suggest that theemphasis should be in the design practices in regard to flooding. The estimated changes in other structural design criteria are generally less significant or favourable.

M3 - Article

VL - 43

SP - 25

EP - 48

JO - Geophysica

JF - Geophysica

SN - 0367-4231

IS - 1-2

ER -