Residual municipal solid waste in a circular economy: The Finnish case

To reach the EU recycling targets for 2030, Finland must make significant efforts to increase municipal solid waste (MSW) and plastic packaging waste (PPW) recycling. Finland’s waste management system is currently heavily reliant on incineration with energy recovery. This study focuses on strategies to increase recycling rates for MSW and PPW, particularly in the Finnish context. The research addresses the role of separate collection and industrial central sorting to enhance recycling, what impacts these changes have on residual waste generation, energy recovery, and CO₂ emissions, and what level of sorting efficiency is required to meet policy targets. Previous studies confirm that separate collection is crucial for higher recycling rates, but debate remains over the most effective collection systems and incentives. Industrial central sorting is recognized as a complementary strategy. An MFA with a forecasting model was developed to simulate scenarios for waste generation, collection, sorting, recycling, and energy recovery up to 2030. The model incorporates national and EU statistics and explores multiple scenarios. The findings indicate that achieving a 60% MSW recycling rate requires capturing 70–90% of most material fractions through separate collection. Central sorting significantly boosts plastics recovery but has limited effect on overall MSW recycling rates. Enhanced sorting reduces fossil CO₂ emissions but may lower the calorific value of residual waste. The findings provide insights for policymakers and stakeholders, highlighting the need for substantial improvements in sorting systems and the importance of reliable data to support the transition to a circular economy. The methodology is adaptable to other regions facing similar challenges.