Risk assessment using group elicitation: Case study on start-up of a new logistics system

Markus Porthin, Tony Rosqvist, Susanna Kunttu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter or book articleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

This chapter presents a risk assessment for the start-up of a new logistics system within the pulp and paper manufacturer Stora Enso. The risk assessment was realised as a structured expert elicitation workshop using a computerised group support system. Experts representing different parts of the logistics system were invited to a one-day workshop to assess risks concerning the system start-up. The main topics of the workshop were hazard identification, risk estimation and risk control. Each identified risk scenario was assessed with regard to its likelihood and three consequence types related to logistics: timeliness, product quality and information quality. The top priority risks were identified and risk controls were outlined. The computerised group support system made the workshop more efficient due to the possibility of simultaneous inputs from all participants to a shared environment, versatile processing possibilities of the inputs, voting features with instant results and automated documentation. An essential factor for the success of the workshop was thorough preparation in cooperation between the analysts and the problem owner. Each step of the workshop process was specified and special attention was given to ensure the elicitation questions were clear and unambiguous. The risk assessment resulted in a prioritised list of realistic risk scenarios for the start-up of the logistics system and control ideas for the most important risks. The results helped the company structure their work to ensure a problem free start-up. In addition, the workshop participants found it valuable to meet representatives from other parts of the logistics chain.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationElicitation
Subtitle of host publicationThe Science and Art of Structuring Judgement
EditorsLuis C. Dias, Alec Morton, John Quigley
PublisherSpringer
Pages511-527
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-319-65052-4
ISBN (Print)978-3-319-65051-7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2018
MoE publication typeA3 Part of a book or another research book

Publication series

SeriesInternational Series in Operations Research and Management Science
Volume261
ISSN0884-8289

Fingerprint

Elicitation
Start-up
Risk Assessment
Risk assessment
Logistics
Information Quality
Scenarios
Logistics system
Voting
Instant
Hazard
Pulp
Preparation
Likelihood
Hazards
Processing

Keywords

  • elicitation
  • expert judgement
  • risk
  • logistics

Cite this

Porthin, M., Rosqvist, T., & Kunttu, S. (2018). Risk assessment using group elicitation: Case study on start-up of a new logistics system. In L. C. Dias, A. Morton, & J. Quigley (Eds.), Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement (pp. 511-527). Springer. International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Vol.. 261 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_20
Porthin, Markus ; Rosqvist, Tony ; Kunttu, Susanna. / Risk assessment using group elicitation : Case study on start-up of a new logistics system. Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement. editor / Luis C. Dias ; Alec Morton ; John Quigley. Springer, 2018. pp. 511-527 (International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Vol. 261).
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Porthin, M, Rosqvist, T & Kunttu, S 2018, Risk assessment using group elicitation: Case study on start-up of a new logistics system. in LC Dias, A Morton & J Quigley (eds), Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement. Springer, International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, vol. 261, pp. 511-527. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_20

Risk assessment using group elicitation : Case study on start-up of a new logistics system. / Porthin, Markus; Rosqvist, Tony; Kunttu, Susanna.

Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement. ed. / Luis C. Dias; Alec Morton; John Quigley. Springer, 2018. p. 511-527 (International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Vol. 261).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter or book articleScientificpeer-review

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AB - This chapter presents a risk assessment for the start-up of a new logistics system within the pulp and paper manufacturer Stora Enso. The risk assessment was realised as a structured expert elicitation workshop using a computerised group support system. Experts representing different parts of the logistics system were invited to a one-day workshop to assess risks concerning the system start-up. The main topics of the workshop were hazard identification, risk estimation and risk control. Each identified risk scenario was assessed with regard to its likelihood and three consequence types related to logistics: timeliness, product quality and information quality. The top priority risks were identified and risk controls were outlined. The computerised group support system made the workshop more efficient due to the possibility of simultaneous inputs from all participants to a shared environment, versatile processing possibilities of the inputs, voting features with instant results and automated documentation. An essential factor for the success of the workshop was thorough preparation in cooperation between the analysts and the problem owner. Each step of the workshop process was specified and special attention was given to ensure the elicitation questions were clear and unambiguous. The risk assessment resulted in a prioritised list of realistic risk scenarios for the start-up of the logistics system and control ideas for the most important risks. The results helped the company structure their work to ensure a problem free start-up. In addition, the workshop participants found it valuable to meet representatives from other parts of the logistics chain.

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Porthin M, Rosqvist T, Kunttu S. Risk assessment using group elicitation: Case study on start-up of a new logistics system. In Dias LC, Morton A, Quigley J, editors, Elicitation: The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement. Springer. 2018. p. 511-527. (International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Vol. 261). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_20