Robust decision making analysis of BECCS (bio-CLC)in a district heating and cooling grid

Tomi J. Lindroos; Magnus Rydén; Øyvind Langørgen; Esa Pursiheimo; Toni Pikkarainen

doi:10.1016/j.seta.2019.05.005

Robust decision making analysis of BECCS (bio-CLC)in a district heating and cooling grid

Tomi J. Lindroos (Corresponding Author), Magnus Rydén, Øyvind Langørgen, Esa Pursiheimo, Toni Pikkarainen

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Abstract

Additional investments to negative emission technologies, such as reforestation or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), are required to achieve Paris Agreement targets. Chemical-looping combustion of biomass (Bio-CLC)is an under-the-development combustion technology that could provide relatively low cost negative CO₂ emissions. We modelled Bio-CLC units as a part of a city-level district heating and cooling (DHC)grid based on literature and our experimental work with Bio-CLC pilot plants. We applied robust decision-making (RDM)to identify preconditions that favour Bio-CLC over certain competing investment options. In the selected case study, a Bio-CLC unit had a 50% chance to be profitable (10% Internal rate of return or better)around the level of 10 €/tCO₂ net income from captured bio-CO₂. If the net income from captured bio-CO₂ was below 10 €/tCO₂, as currently, large heat pumps with COP of 3.5 were the most robust of the studied investment options. Traditional bio-CHP performed better than large heat pumps only when electricity market price was above 50 €/MWh and biomass price below 20 €/MWh. Performed RDM analysis provides a systemic background for both technology developers and DHC operators when considering the competitiveness of the technology in an uncertain future.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	157-172
Number of pages	16
Journal	Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments
Volume	34
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2019.05.005
Publication status	Published - 2019
MoE publication type	A1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

BECCS
Bio-CLC
Cogeneration
District heating
Robust decision-making

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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title = "Robust decision making analysis of BECCS (bio-CLC)in a district heating and cooling grid",

abstract = "Additional investments to negative emission technologies, such as reforestation or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), are required to achieve Paris Agreement targets. Chemical-looping combustion of biomass (Bio-CLC)is an under-the-development combustion technology that could provide relatively low cost negative CO2 emissions. We modelled Bio-CLC units as a part of a city-level district heating and cooling (DHC)grid based on literature and our experimental work with Bio-CLC pilot plants. We applied robust decision-making (RDM)to identify preconditions that favour Bio-CLC over certain competing investment options. In the selected case study, a Bio-CLC unit had a 50% chance to be profitable (10% Internal rate of return or better)around the level of 10 €/tCO2 net income from captured bio-CO2. If the net income from captured bio-CO2 was below 10 €/tCO2, as currently, large heat pumps with COP of 3.5 were the most robust of the studied investment options. Traditional bio-CHP performed better than large heat pumps only when electricity market price was above 50 €/MWh and biomass price below 20 €/MWh. Performed RDM analysis provides a systemic background for both technology developers and DHC operators when considering the competitiveness of the technology in an uncertain future.",

keywords = "BECCS, Bio-CLC, Cogeneration, District heating, Robust decision-making",

author = "Lindroos, {Tomi J.} and Magnus Ryd{\'e}n and {\O}yvind Lang{\o}rgen and Esa Pursiheimo and Toni Pikkarainen",

note = "Funding Information: The article was written as a part of the {\textquoteleft}Negative CO 2 {\textquoteright} project funded by Nordic Energy Research and partly with in-kind funding of the participating research institutes. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 The Authors Copyright: Copyright 2019 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

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AU - Lindroos, Tomi J.

AU - Rydén, Magnus

AU - Langørgen, Øyvind

AU - Pursiheimo, Esa

AU - Pikkarainen, Toni

N1 - Funding Information: The article was written as a part of the ‘Negative CO 2 ’ project funded by Nordic Energy Research and partly with in-kind funding of the participating research institutes. Publisher Copyright: © 2019 The Authors Copyright: Copyright 2019 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - Additional investments to negative emission technologies, such as reforestation or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), are required to achieve Paris Agreement targets. Chemical-looping combustion of biomass (Bio-CLC)is an under-the-development combustion technology that could provide relatively low cost negative CO2 emissions. We modelled Bio-CLC units as a part of a city-level district heating and cooling (DHC)grid based on literature and our experimental work with Bio-CLC pilot plants. We applied robust decision-making (RDM)to identify preconditions that favour Bio-CLC over certain competing investment options. In the selected case study, a Bio-CLC unit had a 50% chance to be profitable (10% Internal rate of return or better)around the level of 10 €/tCO2 net income from captured bio-CO2. If the net income from captured bio-CO2 was below 10 €/tCO2, as currently, large heat pumps with COP of 3.5 were the most robust of the studied investment options. Traditional bio-CHP performed better than large heat pumps only when electricity market price was above 50 €/MWh and biomass price below 20 €/MWh. Performed RDM analysis provides a systemic background for both technology developers and DHC operators when considering the competitiveness of the technology in an uncertain future.

AB - Additional investments to negative emission technologies, such as reforestation or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), are required to achieve Paris Agreement targets. Chemical-looping combustion of biomass (Bio-CLC)is an under-the-development combustion technology that could provide relatively low cost negative CO2 emissions. We modelled Bio-CLC units as a part of a city-level district heating and cooling (DHC)grid based on literature and our experimental work with Bio-CLC pilot plants. We applied robust decision-making (RDM)to identify preconditions that favour Bio-CLC over certain competing investment options. In the selected case study, a Bio-CLC unit had a 50% chance to be profitable (10% Internal rate of return or better)around the level of 10 €/tCO2 net income from captured bio-CO2. If the net income from captured bio-CO2 was below 10 €/tCO2, as currently, large heat pumps with COP of 3.5 were the most robust of the studied investment options. Traditional bio-CHP performed better than large heat pumps only when electricity market price was above 50 €/MWh and biomass price below 20 €/MWh. Performed RDM analysis provides a systemic background for both technology developers and DHC operators when considering the competitiveness of the technology in an uncertain future.

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KW - Bio-CLC

KW - Cogeneration

KW - District heating

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SN - 2213-1388

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JO - Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments

JF - Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments

ER -

Robust decision making analysis of BECCS (bio-CLC)in a district heating and cooling grid

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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