Robust decision making analysis of BECCS (bio-CLC)in a district heating and cooling grid

Tomi J. Lindroos (Corresponding Author), Magnus Rydén, Øyvind Langørgen, Esa Pursiheimo, Toni Pikkarainen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleScientificpeer-review

Abstract

Additional investments to negative emission technologies, such as reforestation or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), are required to achieve Paris Agreement targets. Chemical-looping combustion of biomass (Bio-CLC)is an under-the-development combustion technology that could provide relatively low cost negative CO2 emissions. We modelled Bio-CLC units as a part of a city-level district heating and cooling (DHC)grid based on literature and our experimental work with Bio-CLC pilot plants. We applied robust decision-making (RDM)to identify preconditions that favour Bio-CLC over certain competing investment options. In the selected case study, a Bio-CLC unit had a 50% chance to be profitable (10% Internal rate of return or better)around the level of 10 €/tCO2 net income from captured bio-CO2. If the net income from captured bio-CO2 was below 10 €/tCO2, as currently, large heat pumps with COP of 3.5 were the most robust of the studied investment options. Traditional bio-CHP performed better than large heat pumps only when electricity market price was above 50 €/MWh and biomass price below 20 €/MWh. Performed RDM analysis provides a systemic background for both technology developers and DHC operators when considering the competitiveness of the technology in an uncertain future.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)157-172
Number of pages16
JournalSustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments
Volume34
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019
MoE publication typeA1 Journal article-refereed

Keywords

  • BECCS
  • Bio-CLC
  • Cogeneration
  • District heating
  • Robust decision-making

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