Robust decision making analysis of BECCS (bio-CLC)in a district heating and cooling grid

Additional investments to negative emission technologies, such as reforestation or bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), are required to achieve Paris Agreement targets. Chemical-looping combustion of biomass (Bio-CLC)is an under-the-development combustion technology that could provide relatively low cost negative CO₂ emissions. We modelled Bio-CLC units as a part of a city-level district heating and cooling (DHC)grid based on literature and our experimental work with Bio-CLC pilot plants. We applied robust decision-making (RDM)to identify preconditions that favour Bio-CLC over certain competing investment options. In the selected case study, a Bio-CLC unit had a 50% chance to be profitable (10% Internal rate of return or better)around the level of 10 €/tCO₂ net income from captured bio-CO₂. If the net income from captured bio-CO₂ was below 10 €/tCO₂, as currently, large heat pumps with COP of 3.5 were the most robust of the studied investment options. Traditional bio-CHP performed better than large heat pumps only when electricity market price was above 50 €/MWh and biomass price below 20 €/MWh. Performed RDM analysis provides a systemic background for both technology developers and DHC operators when considering the competitiveness of the technology in an uncertain future.