Safety impact of advanced driver assistance systems in Europe in 2030

Introduction: The European Union aims to halve road deaths and serious injuries from 2020 to 2030. In July 2022, several Advanced Driver Assistance Systems have become mandatory for new car models in the EU, under the General Safety Regulation 2019/2144. This study assessed the safety impact of these systems in the EU 27 member states in 2030, namely AEB, LKA, Advisory ISA, and reversing detection with camera. Method: An overall effect size for each ADAS was defined, based on a literature review on the safety impacts of each system on their target accidents. The increase in the ADAS-equipped car stock until 2030 was estimated, based on literature and official statistics. The proportion of target accidents per ADAS was estimated based on accident statistics. The safety impact of ADAS in the EU-27 was calculated based on the effect sizes, the system-equipped passenger car stock increase, and the target accidents per system. Results: The combined impact of AEB, LKA, ISA, and reverse cameras was estimated to amount to a 6% reduction in injury (including fatal) car accidents in the EU-27 in 2030, compared to a scenario where the ADAS-equipped vehicle stock share would remain at 2019 levels. AEB was estimated to account for a 5% reduction in injury car accidents in the EU-27 in 2030. Advisory ISA was estimated to bring a 1% injury accident reduction. Both LKA and reverse cameras were estimated to reduce injury car accidents by 0.2%. Conclusion and practical application: The results suggest that mandatory ADAS contribute to meeting the EU road injury and fatality reduction targets, albeit at a relatively low proportion. These findings offer valuable insight for policymakers, as they indicate that ADAS deployment should be combined with other measures. Further research should determine which measures would be most effective in achieving the EU safety objectives.