Scenario perspectives

Ilkka Savolainen, Antti Lehtilä, Lassi Similä

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientific

    Abstract

    If the global temperature rise is to be limited to 2°C compared with the pre-industrial temperature level, global greenhouse gas emissions will have to be reduced by 50-85 per cent from the current levels by 2050, according to the IPCC. Furthermore, the industrial countries will have to cut their emissions by 80-95% by 2050 and by 25-40% by 2020 to achieve this warming limit. The European Union has announced its readiness to cut emissions by 30 per cent from the 1990 level by 2020 if other industrialised countries also proceed with corresponding reductions. The EU has unilaterally undertaken a commitment to reduce emissions by 20 per cent by 2020, and has also proposed indicatively to cut its emissions by 60-80 per cent by 2050. In Finland, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 60-66% from 1990 to 2050 according to the scenario study presented in this article, if the emission rights price rises no higher than 80 euro /tCO2-eq. Increased energy efficiency becomes an important factor in emission reductions. The most important energy production technologies which reduce emissions are bioenergy technologies, wind power and nuclear power. There will be a strong decrease of greenhouse gas emissions in the sectors of condensing-based electricity production, district heating, and separate heating. Most of the emission reduction will take place in ETS rather than the non-ETS sector. It is very likely that the global and European emission reduction policies will also cause a rapid development of the markets for new energy technologies, which will create opportunities also for Finnish R&D and manufacturing companies.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationTowards zero emission energy production
    Subtitle of host publicationVTT Intelligence Forum 2009
    Place of PublicationEspoo
    PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
    Pages8-25
    ISBN (Electronic)978-951-38-6331-9
    ISBN (Print)978-951-38-6332-6
    Publication statusPublished - 2009
    MoE publication typeB3 Non-refereed article in conference proceedings
    EventTowards zero emission energy production: VTT Intelligence Forum 2009 - Espoo, Finland
    Duration: 3 Feb 20093 Feb 2009

    Publication series

    SeriesVTT Symposium
    Number254
    ISSN0357-9387

    Conference

    ConferenceTowards zero emission energy production
    CountryFinland
    CityEspoo
    Period3/02/093/02/09

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    Cite this

    Savolainen, I., Lehtilä, A., & Similä, L. (2009). Scenario perspectives. In Towards zero emission energy production: VTT Intelligence Forum 2009 (pp. 8-25). VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. VTT Symposium, No. 254