Scenario perspectives

Ilkka Savolainen, Antti Lehtilä, Lassi Similä

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientific

Abstract

If the global temperature rise is to be limited to 2°C compared with the pre-industrial temperature level, global greenhouse gas emissions will have to be reduced by 50-85 per cent from the current levels by 2050, according to the IPCC. Furthermore, the industrial countries will have to cut their emissions by 80-95% by 2050 and by 25-40% by 2020 to achieve this warming limit. The European Union has announced its readiness to cut emissions by 30 per cent from the 1990 level by 2020 if other industrialised countries also proceed with corresponding reductions. The EU has unilaterally undertaken a commitment to reduce emissions by 20 per cent by 2020, and has also proposed indicatively to cut its emissions by 60-80 per cent by 2050. In Finland, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 60-66% from 1990 to 2050 according to the scenario study presented in this article, if the emission rights price rises no higher than 80 euro /tCO2-eq. Increased energy efficiency becomes an important factor in emission reductions. The most important energy production technologies which reduce emissions are bioenergy technologies, wind power and nuclear power. There will be a strong decrease of greenhouse gas emissions in the sectors of condensing-based electricity production, district heating, and separate heating. Most of the emission reduction will take place in ETS rather than the non-ETS sector. It is very likely that the global and European emission reduction policies will also cause a rapid development of the markets for new energy technologies, which will create opportunities also for Finnish R&D and manufacturing companies.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationTowards zero emission energy production
Subtitle of host publicationVTT Intelligence Forum 2009
Place of PublicationEspoo
PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
Pages8-25
ISBN (Electronic)978-951-38-6331-9
ISBN (Print)978-951-38-6332-6
Publication statusPublished - 2009
MoE publication typeB3 Non-refereed article in conference proceedings
EventTowards zero emission energy production: VTT Intelligence Forum 2009 - Espoo, Finland
Duration: 3 Feb 20093 Feb 2009

Publication series

SeriesVTT Symposium
Number254
ISSN0357-9387

Conference

ConferenceTowards zero emission energy production
CountryFinland
CityEspoo
Period3/02/093/02/09

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greenhouse gas
wind power
nuclear power
bioenergy
energy efficiency
European Union
electricity
manufacturing
warming
temperature
heating
market
emission reduction
district heating
energy production
energy technology
policy
price
rights

Cite this

Savolainen, I., Lehtilä, A., & Similä, L. (2009). Scenario perspectives. In Towards zero emission energy production: VTT Intelligence Forum 2009 (pp. 8-25). Espoo: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. VTT Symposium, No. 254
Savolainen, Ilkka ; Lehtilä, Antti ; Similä, Lassi. / Scenario perspectives. Towards zero emission energy production: VTT Intelligence Forum 2009. Espoo : VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2009. pp. 8-25 (VTT Symposium; No. 254).
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title = "Scenario perspectives",
abstract = "If the global temperature rise is to be limited to 2°C compared with the pre-industrial temperature level, global greenhouse gas emissions will have to be reduced by 50-85 per cent from the current levels by 2050, according to the IPCC. Furthermore, the industrial countries will have to cut their emissions by 80-95{\%} by 2050 and by 25-40{\%} by 2020 to achieve this warming limit. The European Union has announced its readiness to cut emissions by 30 per cent from the 1990 level by 2020 if other industrialised countries also proceed with corresponding reductions. The EU has unilaterally undertaken a commitment to reduce emissions by 20 per cent by 2020, and has also proposed indicatively to cut its emissions by 60-80 per cent by 2050. In Finland, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 60-66{\%} from 1990 to 2050 according to the scenario study presented in this article, if the emission rights price rises no higher than 80 euro /tCO2-eq. Increased energy efficiency becomes an important factor in emission reductions. The most important energy production technologies which reduce emissions are bioenergy technologies, wind power and nuclear power. There will be a strong decrease of greenhouse gas emissions in the sectors of condensing-based electricity production, district heating, and separate heating. Most of the emission reduction will take place in ETS rather than the non-ETS sector. It is very likely that the global and European emission reduction policies will also cause a rapid development of the markets for new energy technologies, which will create opportunities also for Finnish R&D and manufacturing companies.",
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Savolainen, I, Lehtilä, A & Similä, L 2009, Scenario perspectives. in Towards zero emission energy production: VTT Intelligence Forum 2009. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo, VTT Symposium, no. 254, pp. 8-25, Towards zero emission energy production, Espoo, Finland, 3/02/09.

Scenario perspectives. / Savolainen, Ilkka; Lehtilä, Antti; Similä, Lassi.

Towards zero emission energy production: VTT Intelligence Forum 2009. Espoo : VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2009. p. 8-25 (VTT Symposium; No. 254).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientific

TY - GEN

T1 - Scenario perspectives

AU - Savolainen, Ilkka

AU - Lehtilä, Antti

AU - Similä, Lassi

PY - 2009

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N2 - If the global temperature rise is to be limited to 2°C compared with the pre-industrial temperature level, global greenhouse gas emissions will have to be reduced by 50-85 per cent from the current levels by 2050, according to the IPCC. Furthermore, the industrial countries will have to cut their emissions by 80-95% by 2050 and by 25-40% by 2020 to achieve this warming limit. The European Union has announced its readiness to cut emissions by 30 per cent from the 1990 level by 2020 if other industrialised countries also proceed with corresponding reductions. The EU has unilaterally undertaken a commitment to reduce emissions by 20 per cent by 2020, and has also proposed indicatively to cut its emissions by 60-80 per cent by 2050. In Finland, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 60-66% from 1990 to 2050 according to the scenario study presented in this article, if the emission rights price rises no higher than 80 euro /tCO2-eq. Increased energy efficiency becomes an important factor in emission reductions. The most important energy production technologies which reduce emissions are bioenergy technologies, wind power and nuclear power. There will be a strong decrease of greenhouse gas emissions in the sectors of condensing-based electricity production, district heating, and separate heating. Most of the emission reduction will take place in ETS rather than the non-ETS sector. It is very likely that the global and European emission reduction policies will also cause a rapid development of the markets for new energy technologies, which will create opportunities also for Finnish R&D and manufacturing companies.

AB - If the global temperature rise is to be limited to 2°C compared with the pre-industrial temperature level, global greenhouse gas emissions will have to be reduced by 50-85 per cent from the current levels by 2050, according to the IPCC. Furthermore, the industrial countries will have to cut their emissions by 80-95% by 2050 and by 25-40% by 2020 to achieve this warming limit. The European Union has announced its readiness to cut emissions by 30 per cent from the 1990 level by 2020 if other industrialised countries also proceed with corresponding reductions. The EU has unilaterally undertaken a commitment to reduce emissions by 20 per cent by 2020, and has also proposed indicatively to cut its emissions by 60-80 per cent by 2050. In Finland, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 60-66% from 1990 to 2050 according to the scenario study presented in this article, if the emission rights price rises no higher than 80 euro /tCO2-eq. Increased energy efficiency becomes an important factor in emission reductions. The most important energy production technologies which reduce emissions are bioenergy technologies, wind power and nuclear power. There will be a strong decrease of greenhouse gas emissions in the sectors of condensing-based electricity production, district heating, and separate heating. Most of the emission reduction will take place in ETS rather than the non-ETS sector. It is very likely that the global and European emission reduction policies will also cause a rapid development of the markets for new energy technologies, which will create opportunities also for Finnish R&D and manufacturing companies.

M3 - Conference article in proceedings

SN - 978-951-38-6332-6

T3 - VTT Symposium

SP - 8

EP - 25

BT - Towards zero emission energy production

PB - VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

CY - Espoo

ER -

Savolainen I, Lehtilä A, Similä L. Scenario perspectives. In Towards zero emission energy production: VTT Intelligence Forum 2009. Espoo: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. 2009. p. 8-25. (VTT Symposium; No. 254).