Scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption of road transport in Finland: Exploring the impact of existing policies

This study explored how the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption of road transport in Finland develops over time under the current policy setting. As the implementation of new policies and other measures presented in the Roadmap to fossil-free transport proceeds, the earlier scenarios have become outdated. To provide relevant recommendations for policy makers, updated scenarios of GHG emission pathways are needed.

We defined the current sets of policies and other measures that aim at reducing GHG emissions of road transport. A new deterministic model ELIISA was developed that combines simulation of vehicle fleet, kilometrage and energy consumption and optimisation of biofuel consumption. ELIISA model was used to construct the new baseline scenario WEM2022 for road transport GHG emissions and energy consumption in Finland using the former baseline WEM2021 as the base.

The results showed that GHG emissions of road transport will reduce more rapidly in WEM2022 than in WEM2021 scenario. However, the national GHG emission reduction target for road transport will not be met. New policies from EU's FitFor55 package will create a long-lasting impact on the vehicle fleet composition, but to reach the national GHG emission targets, the authors urge for more sustainable measures and transparent policy impact assessments.