Scenarios for halocarbon emissions in Finland and estimates of their impact on global warming and chlorine loading in the stratosphere

Finnish halocarbon (CFC, HCFC and HFC) emissions and their impact on global warming and chlorine loading in the stratosphere have been estimated. CFC consumption is estimated to have begun in the 1960s in Finland. CFCs deplete ozone and are therefore being phased out. In Finland, the deadline is the year 1995. The total Finnish CFC consumption during 1960-1994 is estimated to be about 70 000 tonnes. The yearly consumption has been, at most, about 3000 tonnes.

CFCs will be partly substituted by HCFCs and HFCs. The yearly HCFC consumption has been around 300 tonnes since the mid 1980s. HFCs are new products and their use has been minor. Both HCFC and HFC consumption is assumed to increase. HCFCs will be gradually phased out between 1996 and 2030 because they also deplete ozone. No restrictions are planned for HFCs.

CFC emissions are evaluated in two scenarios. In the base scenario, all the consumed amount is expected to be released to the atmosphere. In the recovery scenario, 75% of the amount now stored in equipment and products (about 10 000 tonnes) is assumed to be recovered. Even if consumption is phased out in 1994, emissions continue until the next century.