Seasonal and contextual factors in level 3 PSA

Research output: Book/ReportReportProfessional

Abstract

There are several factors that - through their implications to nuclear accident consequences - may affect level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) results significantly. For example, now, ice cover and frost may affect the transport of radionuclides; an initiating event, such as tsunami or loss of external electric power, may cause the population to be evacuated before release or impede evacuation; extreme snow as an initiating event implies that the season in
question is winter, and therefore winter weather should be used in atmospheric dispersion calculations. In this report, such factors are called seasonal and contextual factors (SCF). These factors are not systematically taken into account in level 3 modelling currently.

This report makes an overview of possible SCF’s and their potential impacts to accident consequences and level 3 analysis. SCF’s are listed together with their implications. SCF’s affect many important level 3 phenomena such as aquatic dispersion, transport of radionuclides in the environment and biosphere, population demography and behaviour, and attenuation of ionizing radiation. These, in turn, affect level 3 analyses concerning population dose, evacuation, sheltering and distribution of radionuclides in the environment.

Ways of incorporating SCF’s in level 3 analyses are discussed. For example, they affect dose assessment parameters, use of weather data, and estimation of contaminated land area. Constructing a framework for incorporating SCF’s in level 3 analyses, in a manner similar to those widely used for external events, would make this incorporation easier.

Systematic research is needed to find out which SCF’s are significant enough to merit incorporation in PSA, and how to incorporate them in a reasonable manner. This will involve multidisciplinary modelling, analysis and experimentation.



Original languageEnglish
PublisherVTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
Number of pages19
Publication statusPublished - 2018
MoE publication typeNot Eligible

Publication series

NameResearch Report
PublisherVTT
No.VTT-R-00221-18

Fingerprint

radionuclide
safety
demography and population
weather
nuclear accident
winter
ice cover
frost
tsunami
modeling
snow
dose
analysis
incorporation
electric power
loss
dispersion calculation
distribution
parameter
land

Keywords

  • probabilistic risk assessment
  • nuclear accident consequences

Cite this

Karanta, I. (2018). Seasonal and contextual factors in level 3 PSA. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. VTT Research Report, No. VTT-R-00221-18
Karanta, Ilkka. / Seasonal and contextual factors in level 3 PSA. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2018. 19 p. (VTT Research Report; No. VTT-R-00221-18).
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Karanta, I 2018, Seasonal and contextual factors in level 3 PSA. VTT Research Report, no. VTT-R-00221-18, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland.

Seasonal and contextual factors in level 3 PSA. / Karanta, Ilkka.

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2018. 19 p. (VTT Research Report; No. VTT-R-00221-18).

Research output: Book/ReportReportProfessional

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Karanta I. Seasonal and contextual factors in level 3 PSA. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2018. 19 p. (VTT Research Report; No. VTT-R-00221-18).