Sensitivity of a lumped-capacitance building thermal modelling approach for energy-market-scale flexibility studies

Despite all the literature on building energy management, building-stock-scale models depicting its impact for energy-market-scale optimisation models are lacking. To address this shortcoming, an open-source tool called ArchetypeBuildingModel.jl has been developed for aggregating building-stock-level data into simplified lumped-capacitance thermal models compatible with existing open-source energy-system modelling frameworks. This paper aims to demonstrate the feasibility of these simplified thermal models by comparing their performance against dedicated building simulation software, as well as examining their sensitivity to key modelling and parameter assumptions. Modelling and parameter assumptions comparable to the existing literature achieved an acceptable performance according to ASHRAE Guideline 14 across all tested buildings and nodal configurations. The most robust performance was achieved with a period of variations above 13 days and interior node depth between 0.1 and 0.2 for structural thermal mass calibrations, and with external shading coefficients between 0.6 and 1.0 and solar heat gain convective fractions between 0.4 and 0.6 for solar heat gain calibrations. Furthermore, three-plus-node lumped-capacitance thermal models are recommended when modelling buildings with structures varying in terms of thermal mass. Nevertheless, the ArchetypeBuildingModel.jl performance was found to be robust against uncertain key parameter assumptions, making it plausible for energy-market-scale applications.