Shaping the future of small modular reactors: Future research trajectories needed for strategic planning guidance

Small Modular Reactor (SMR) is an emerging technology for electricity and heat production, promising a flexible and low-carbon energy source to help firms, cities and nations achieve emission reduction targets. However, the societal, technological, and economic viability of SMRs remains uncertain due to e.g. regulatory challenges, social acceptance, safety concerns, and competitiveness of SMR as a clean energy source compared to alternatives. This study aims to enhance the understanding and strategic planning of SMRs in uncertain market conditions by identifying the main obstacles and drivers for SMR adoption. It focuses on implications for energy utilities and public sector decision-making. The research questions are: What are the main uncertainties related to shaping sustainable SMR markets? How can strategic decision-making in the utilities sector be enhanced in highly uncertain future energy and SMR markets? The study employs a literature review, document analysis, and interviews with stakeholders, including energy companies, cities, the radiation safety authority, and experts from related ongoing projects. This research represents the first phase of a broader study, with methods refined based on the analysis. This paper presents an ongoing study with preliminary findings refined as the study progresses. Preliminary findings indicate several areas requiring further research to enhance the understanding and
strategic planning of SMRs. Key areas identified include uncertainties and preconditions for SMR market emergence, including technological challenges, market demand, and regulatory developments. It also highlights the importance of understanding the expected impacts of SMR deployment on energy production, including efficiency, costs, and environmental effects. Investigating uncertainties related to investment attractiveness, costs, and future cash flows is necessary. The study also emphasizes exploring stakeholder perspectives on needs, barriers, drivers and beliefs of SMR adoption and anticipating future scenarios based on these. Through this, the impact of SMRs on companies and cities, and the formation of sustainable markets can be understood. Finally, it highlights the examination of political, economic, regulatory, environmental, social, and technological developments influencing SMR utilization and impacts. The research will enhance the understanding and strategic planning of SMRs in uncertain market conditions. Summarizing emerging understanding into critical uncertainties, creating future scenarios, and developing decision-making methodologies supporting energy utilities in recognizing and analyzing their strategic options are essential. These steps are needed to achieve better conditions for responsible, acceptable, and sustainability-promoting utilization of SMRs as part of the energy system and policy. Incorporating a business perspective and ensuring acceptability are crucial for the successful adoption of SMRs.