Socio-Technical Scenarios for the Finnish Clean Hydrogen transition

Green hydrogen has the potential to play a key role in a clean, secure, and affordable energy future in the EU, and Finland’s goal is to become the “European leader in the hydrogen economy in the entire value chain” . The hydrogen-hype stems from the capability of hydrogen to decarbonize various hard-to-abate sectors, such as transport and aviation industries, by serving as a versatile energy carrier, storage solution, and raw material . While several scenarios and roadmaps have emerged to envision the diverse hydrogen futures, little emphasis has been placed on social considerations or justice aspects of the transition. To bridge this gap, this abstract presents findings from the JustH2Transit project, focusing on the creation of socio-technical scenarios for a just hydrogen transition. Through collaborative workshops involving interdisciplinary experts, key PESTE(CVL) factors influencing the transition were identified, including land use conflicts, resource and workforce availability, social acceptance, and uncertainties in the investment environment. Based on these key factors, four scenarios for just hydrogen transition were developed. These scenarios range from ones where hype drives innovation and investment to those where societal frictions and multiple crises hinder hydrogen market growth and exacerbate inequality. By integrating diverse perspectives and addressing socio-political dynamics, these scenarios provide valuable insights of key enablers and barriers for policymakers, industry stakeholders, civil society, and researchers navigating the complexities of the green hydrogen transition.