Statistical evaluation of extreme ice loads

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientific

Abstract

The problem of how to estimate the probability of extreme icing events by historical data is crucial in the optimal design of structures in cold regions. For performing the extreme value analysis, numerous different methods are widely used, and several software packages available. There is no consensus on which method should be preferred. Furthermore, there are different criteria in use for the goodness of a method that estimates the cumulative distribution function and the extremes.By using the probabilistically correct goodness criterion, we present a method that provides estimates for the extremes that are considerably better than obtained by the conventional methods. This new method does not require subjective decisions by the user, and is particularly useful for small data sets, such as icing events observed over a short time-period.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of IWAIS 2019
Number of pages5
Publication statusPublished - 2019
MoE publication typeB3 Non-refereed article in conference proceedings
EventThe XVIII International Workshop on Atmospheric Icing of Structures, IWAIS 2019 - Reykjavik, Iceland
Duration: 23 Jun 201928 Jun 2019
Conference number: 18
https://iwais2019.is/

Workshop

WorkshopThe XVIII International Workshop on Atmospheric Icing of Structures, IWAIS 2019
Abbreviated titleIWAIS
CountryIceland
CityReykjavik
Period23/06/1928/06/19
Internet address

Keywords

  • extremes
  • extreme value analysis
  • return period
  • ice load
  • icing

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