Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection

Kaisa Simola, Otso Cronvall, Ilkka Männistö, Jens Gunnars, Lars Alverlind, Peter Dillström, Luca Gandossi

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

    1 Citation (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Reliability estimates of piping (and other structural components) are needed e.g. in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI applications, and other structural reliability assessments. The reliability of piping components is affected by ISI, since inspection results increase the knowledge of the state of the inspected components. Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) models can account for the ISI effectiveness and interval, and allow sensitivity studies. A detailed modelling of ISI effectiveness is difficult, since it depends on several factors, and it would be very expensive to produce statistical data to estimate the probability of detection (POD) for various flaws. On the other hand, one could question the need of very detailed POD estimates in RI-ISI applications. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. The paper summarises the results of a study of the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified probability of detection (POD) curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationReliability, Risk and Safety
    Subtitle of host publicationBack to the Future
    EditorsBen Ale, Ioannis Papazoglou, Enrico Zio
    Place of PublicationLondon
    PublisherTaylor & Francis
    Pages1513-1518
    ISBN (Print)978-0-415-60427-7
    Publication statusPublished - 2010
    MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
    EventEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2010 - Rhodes, Greece
    Duration: 5 Sep 20109 Sep 2010

    Conference

    ConferenceEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2010
    Abbreviated titleESREL 2010
    CountryGreece
    CityRhodes
    Period5/09/109/09/10

    Fingerprint

    Inspection
    Defects
    Fracture mechanics
    Risk assessment

    Keywords

    • In-service inspection
    • probability of detection
    • probabilistic fracture mechanics

    Cite this

    Simola, K., Cronvall, O., Männistö, I., Gunnars, J., Alverlind, L., Dillström, P., & Gandossi, L. (2010). Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection. In B. Ale, I. Papazoglou, & E. Zio (Eds.), Reliability, Risk and Safety: Back to the Future (pp. 1513-1518). London: Taylor & Francis.
    Simola, Kaisa ; Cronvall, Otso ; Männistö, Ilkka ; Gunnars, Jens ; Alverlind, Lars ; Dillström, Peter ; Gandossi, Luca. / Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection. Reliability, Risk and Safety: Back to the Future. editor / Ben Ale ; Ioannis Papazoglou ; Enrico Zio. London : Taylor & Francis, 2010. pp. 1513-1518
    @inproceedings{9fa9d11e706e4e3e852ac0c07ec33c27,
    title = "Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection",
    abstract = "Reliability estimates of piping (and other structural components) are needed e.g. in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI applications, and other structural reliability assessments. The reliability of piping components is affected by ISI, since inspection results increase the knowledge of the state of the inspected components. Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) models can account for the ISI effectiveness and interval, and allow sensitivity studies. A detailed modelling of ISI effectiveness is difficult, since it depends on several factors, and it would be very expensive to produce statistical data to estimate the probability of detection (POD) for various flaws. On the other hand, one could question the need of very detailed POD estimates in RI-ISI applications. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. The paper summarises the results of a study of the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified probability of detection (POD) curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.",
    keywords = "In-service inspection, probability of detection, probabilistic fracture mechanics",
    author = "Kaisa Simola and Otso Cronvall and Ilkka M{\"a}nnist{\"o} and Jens Gunnars and Lars Alverlind and Peter Dillstr{\"o}m and Luca Gandossi",
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    year = "2010",
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    Simola, K, Cronvall, O, Männistö, I, Gunnars, J, Alverlind, L, Dillström, P & Gandossi, L 2010, Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection. in B Ale, I Papazoglou & E Zio (eds), Reliability, Risk and Safety: Back to the Future. Taylor & Francis, London, pp. 1513-1518, European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2010, Rhodes, Greece, 5/09/10.

    Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection. / Simola, Kaisa; Cronvall, Otso; Männistö, Ilkka; Gunnars, Jens; Alverlind, Lars; Dillström, Peter; Gandossi, Luca.

    Reliability, Risk and Safety: Back to the Future. ed. / Ben Ale; Ioannis Papazoglou; Enrico Zio. London : Taylor & Francis, 2010. p. 1513-1518.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

    TY - GEN

    T1 - Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection

    AU - Simola, Kaisa

    AU - Cronvall, Otso

    AU - Männistö, Ilkka

    AU - Gunnars, Jens

    AU - Alverlind, Lars

    AU - Dillström, Peter

    AU - Gandossi, Luca

    N1 - Project code: 41253

    PY - 2010

    Y1 - 2010

    N2 - Reliability estimates of piping (and other structural components) are needed e.g. in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI applications, and other structural reliability assessments. The reliability of piping components is affected by ISI, since inspection results increase the knowledge of the state of the inspected components. Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) models can account for the ISI effectiveness and interval, and allow sensitivity studies. A detailed modelling of ISI effectiveness is difficult, since it depends on several factors, and it would be very expensive to produce statistical data to estimate the probability of detection (POD) for various flaws. On the other hand, one could question the need of very detailed POD estimates in RI-ISI applications. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. The paper summarises the results of a study of the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified probability of detection (POD) curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.

    AB - Reliability estimates of piping (and other structural components) are needed e.g. in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI applications, and other structural reliability assessments. The reliability of piping components is affected by ISI, since inspection results increase the knowledge of the state of the inspected components. Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) models can account for the ISI effectiveness and interval, and allow sensitivity studies. A detailed modelling of ISI effectiveness is difficult, since it depends on several factors, and it would be very expensive to produce statistical data to estimate the probability of detection (POD) for various flaws. On the other hand, one could question the need of very detailed POD estimates in RI-ISI applications. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. The paper summarises the results of a study of the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified probability of detection (POD) curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.

    KW - In-service inspection

    KW - probability of detection

    KW - probabilistic fracture mechanics

    M3 - Conference article in proceedings

    SN - 978-0-415-60427-7

    SP - 1513

    EP - 1518

    BT - Reliability, Risk and Safety

    A2 - Ale, Ben

    A2 - Papazoglou, Ioannis

    A2 - Zio, Enrico

    PB - Taylor & Francis

    CY - London

    ER -

    Simola K, Cronvall O, Männistö I, Gunnars J, Alverlind L, Dillström P et al. Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection. In Ale B, Papazoglou I, Zio E, editors, Reliability, Risk and Safety: Back to the Future. London: Taylor & Francis. 2010. p. 1513-1518