Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection

Kaisa Simola; Otso Cronvall; Ilkka Männistö; Jens Gunnars; Lars Alverlind; Peter Dillström; Luca Gandossi

Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection

Kaisa Simola, Otso Cronvall, Ilkka Männistö, Jens Gunnars, Lars Alverlind, Peter Dillström, Luca Gandossi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference article in proceedings › Scientific › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Reliability estimates of piping (and other structural components) are needed e.g. in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI applications, and other structural reliability assessments. The reliability of piping components is affected by ISI, since inspection results increase the knowledge of the state of the inspected components. Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) models can account for the ISI effectiveness and interval, and allow sensitivity studies. A detailed modelling of ISI effectiveness is difficult, since it depends on several factors, and it would be very expensive to produce statistical data to estimate the probability of detection (POD) for various flaws. On the other hand, one could question the need of very detailed POD estimates in RI-ISI applications. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. The paper summarises the results of a study of the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified probability of detection (POD) curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Reliability, Risk and Safety
Subtitle of host publication	Back to the Future
Editors	Ben Ale, Ioannis Papazoglou, Enrico Zio
Place of Publication	London
Publisher	Taylor & Francis
Pages	1513-1518
ISBN (Print)	978-0-415-60427-7
Publication status	Published - 2010
MoE publication type	A4 Article in a conference publication
Event	European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2010 - Rhodes, Greece Duration: 5 Sept 2010 → 9 Sept 2010

Conference

Conference	European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2010
Abbreviated title	ESREL 2010
Country/Territory	Greece
City	Rhodes
Period	5/09/10 → 9/09/10

Keywords

In-service inspection
probability of detection
probabilistic fracture mechanics

Cite this

@inproceedings{9fa9d11e706e4e3e852ac0c07ec33c27,

title = "Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection",

abstract = "Reliability estimates of piping (and other structural components) are needed e.g. in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI applications, and other structural reliability assessments. The reliability of piping components is affected by ISI, since inspection results increase the knowledge of the state of the inspected components. Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) models can account for the ISI effectiveness and interval, and allow sensitivity studies. A detailed modelling of ISI effectiveness is difficult, since it depends on several factors, and it would be very expensive to produce statistical data to estimate the probability of detection (POD) for various flaws. On the other hand, one could question the need of very detailed POD estimates in RI-ISI applications. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. The paper summarises the results of a study of the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified probability of detection (POD) curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.",

keywords = "In-service inspection, probability of detection, probabilistic fracture mechanics",

author = "Kaisa Simola and Otso Cronvall and Ilkka M{\"a}nnist{\"o} and Jens Gunnars and Lars Alverlind and Peter Dillstr{\"o}m and Luca Gandossi",

note = "Project code: 41253; European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2010, ESREL 2010 ; Conference date: 05-09-2010 Through 09-09-2010",

year = "2010",

language = "English",

isbn = "978-0-415-60427-7",

pages = "1513--1518",

editor = "Ben Ale and Ioannis Papazoglou and Enrico Zio",

booktitle = "Reliability, Risk and Safety",

publisher = "Taylor & Francis",

address = "United Kingdom",

}

Simola, K, Cronvall, O, Männistö, I, Gunnars, J, Alverlind, L, Dillström, P & Gandossi, L 2010, Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection. in B Ale, I Papazoglou & E Zio (eds), Reliability, Risk and Safety: Back to the Future. Taylor & Francis, London, pp. 1513-1518, European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2010, Rhodes, Greece, 5/09/10.

Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection. / Simola, Kaisa; Cronvall, Otso; Männistö, Ilkka et al.
Reliability, Risk and Safety: Back to the Future. ed. / Ben Ale; Ioannis Papazoglou; Enrico Zio. London: Taylor & Francis, 2010. p. 1513-1518.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference article in proceedings › Scientific › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection

AU - Simola, Kaisa

AU - Cronvall, Otso

AU - Männistö, Ilkka

AU - Gunnars, Jens

AU - Alverlind, Lars

AU - Dillström, Peter

AU - Gandossi, Luca

N1 - Project code: 41253

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - Reliability estimates of piping (and other structural components) are needed e.g. in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI applications, and other structural reliability assessments. The reliability of piping components is affected by ISI, since inspection results increase the knowledge of the state of the inspected components. Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) models can account for the ISI effectiveness and interval, and allow sensitivity studies. A detailed modelling of ISI effectiveness is difficult, since it depends on several factors, and it would be very expensive to produce statistical data to estimate the probability of detection (POD) for various flaws. On the other hand, one could question the need of very detailed POD estimates in RI-ISI applications. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. The paper summarises the results of a study of the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified probability of detection (POD) curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.

AB - Reliability estimates of piping (and other structural components) are needed e.g. in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI applications, and other structural reliability assessments. The reliability of piping components is affected by ISI, since inspection results increase the knowledge of the state of the inspected components. Probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) models can account for the ISI effectiveness and interval, and allow sensitivity studies. A detailed modelling of ISI effectiveness is difficult, since it depends on several factors, and it would be very expensive to produce statistical data to estimate the probability of detection (POD) for various flaws. On the other hand, one could question the need of very detailed POD estimates in RI-ISI applications. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. The paper summarises the results of a study of the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified probability of detection (POD) curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.

KW - In-service inspection

KW - probability of detection

KW - probabilistic fracture mechanics

M3 - Conference article in proceedings

SN - 978-0-415-60427-7

SP - 1513

EP - 1518

BT - Reliability, Risk and Safety

A2 - Ale, Ben

A2 - Papazoglou, Ioannis

A2 - Zio, Enrico

PB - Taylor & Francis

CY - London

T2 - European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2010

Y2 - 5 September 2010 through 9 September 2010

ER -

Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at non-destructive inspection

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Keywords

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