Successful business at Finnish manufacturing companies beyond 2020: Four scenarios

In order to help the Finnish manufacturing industry prepare for the future, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd executed scenario work under its For Industry spearhead programme. The target of the work was to develop scenarios for future ways for Finnish manufacturing companies to conduct successful business beyond 2020. Special emphasis was placed on manufacturing SME business models for 2025. The work was done in collaboration with entrepreneurs and managers of manufacturing SMEs. Four future scenarios were generated using two pairs of key factors that have been identified as shaping the future: global-local and growth-scarcity. This led to the scenarios of 1) global growth, 2) local growth, 3) global scarcity and 4) local scarcity. The global-local word pair refers to manufacturing processes, whether they occur in global or local value chains. The word pair growth-scarcity refers to markets, whether they are driven by economic growth or by the scarcity of raw materials and other resources. All four scenario worlds are, to some extent, different from the world we live in. Therefore, currently used business models may not create successful business in 2025. To help companies prepare for the future, characteristic features of successful business and business models were identified for each scenario. According to the study, it will be possible for a Finnish manufacturing SME to conduct successful business in each of the potential future worlds, but successful business models may not be the same in the different worlds. The transition from the present business environment to a future one may not be a slow process, but an abrupt one, spanning a few years. Thus, companies should be prepared for abrupt changes in their business environment.