The effects of an enhanced navigation support information service on maritime traffic risks in the gulf of Finland

Maria Hänninen, Arsham Mazaheri, Pentti Kujala, Pekka Laaksonen, Maija Salmiovirta

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The paper presents an Enhanced Navigation Support Information (ENSI) navigation service and estimates how its deployment in the Gulf of Finland would affect the number of ship collisions and groundings. ENSI navigation service transmits the ship's electronic route plan to the Vessel Traffic Service and checks the route. In return, the service sends real-time, route-specific information to the ship such as data on the weather, ice and traffic conditions, the destination and possible disturbances on the route. The service has already been tested onboard Finnish tankers. The tanker safety services will be introduced by 2013 to all oil tankers operating in the Gulf of Finland and can then be expanded to other sea areas as well. According to the maritime traffic accident statistics from the Gulf of Finland, a sea area with increasing tanker traffic and sensitive nature, the primary cause of the majority of accidents has been human failure. Further, 40 % of the human failures had been related to the crew being uncertain of the position of the ship. In this study, the effects of implementing the ENSI service are incorporated into ship-ship collision and grounding causation probability models, and the models are applied to estimating the risk reducing effect for the estimated maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland in 2015. The effects are modeled probabilistically by eliciting expert knowledge and experiences on testing the service. With the proposed Bayesian approach to modeling the problem, the model can be updated easily and uncertainties in the risk estimates reduced after more evidence is available later from longer and wider use of the service.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012)
Place of PublicationRed Hook
PublisherCurran Associates Inc.
Pages5518-5527
ISBN (Print)978-162-276-4365
Publication statusPublished - 2012
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
Event11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012 - Helsinki, Finland
Duration: 25 Jun 201229 Jun 2012

Conference

Conference11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012
CountryFinland
CityHelsinki
Period25/06/1229/06/12

Keywords

  • Bayesian networks
  • Expert elicitation
  • Gulf of Finland
  • Vessel traffic service

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'The effects of an enhanced navigation support information service on maritime traffic risks in the gulf of Finland'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this

    Hänninen, M., Mazaheri, A., Kujala, P., Laaksonen, P., & Salmiovirta, M. (2012). The effects of an enhanced navigation support information service on maritime traffic risks in the gulf of Finland. In 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012 (PSAM11 ESREL 2012) (pp. 5518-5527). Curran Associates Inc..