The effects of causation probability on the ship collision statistics in the Gulf of Finland

Maria Hänninen, Pentti Kujala

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference article in proceedingsScientificpeer-review

21 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this study the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland is studied by examining the collision probability estimates in a heavily used crossing area. In a commonly applied approach for estimating the probability of collision accidents, so-called number of collision candidates is multiplied with a so-called causation probability. In this study a Bayesian network model for the causation probability estimation is applied with different parameter values in order to examine the effects of weather and human factors on collision probability in the crossing of Helsinki-Tallinn traffic and vessels navigating east- or westbound. The results show that the probability of collisions is very sensitive to the causation probability value and it should be modelled with great care to obtain reliable results.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationMarine navigation and safety of sea transportation
EditorsAdam Weintrit
Place of PublicationLondon
PublisherTaylor & Francis
Pages267-272
ISBN (Print)978-0-415-80479-0
Publication statusPublished - 2009
MoE publication typeA4 Article in a conference publication
Event8th International Navigational Symposium on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Trans-Nav 2009 - Gdynia, Poland
Duration: 17 Jun 200919 Jun 2009

Conference

Conference8th International Navigational Symposium on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Trans-Nav 2009
CountryPoland
CityGdynia
Period17/06/0919/06/09

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