Abstract
In this study the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland is studied by examining the collision probability estimates in a heavily used crossing area. In a commonly applied approach for estimating the probability of collision accidents, so-called number of collision candidates is multiplied with a so-called causation probability. In this study a Bayesian network model for the causation probability estimation is applied with different parameter values in order to examine the effects of weather and human factors on collision probability in the crossing of Helsinki-Tallinn traffic and vessels navigating east- or westbound. The results show that the probability of collisions is very sensitive to the causation probability value and it should be modelled with great care to obtain reliable results.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Marine navigation and safety of sea transportation |
| Editors | Adam Weintrit |
| Place of Publication | London |
| Publisher | Taylor & Francis |
| Pages | 267-272 |
| ISBN (Print) | 978-0-415-80479-0 |
| Publication status | Published - 2009 |
| MoE publication type | A4 Article in a conference publication |
| Event | 8th International Navigational Symposium on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Trans-Nav 2009 - Gdynia, Poland Duration: 17 Jun 2009 → 19 Jun 2009 |
Conference
| Conference | 8th International Navigational Symposium on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Trans-Nav 2009 |
|---|---|
| Country/Territory | Poland |
| City | Gdynia |
| Period | 17/06/09 → 19/06/09 |
