The effects of human and organizational factors on ship collision probability

The majority of maritime traffic accidents are due to human failure. This paper describes an approach to modeling the effects of human and organizational factors on ship collision risk by concentrating on safety management. With the tool it is possible to examine how various components of safety management interact and how much they influence the collision probability. In the proposed hierarchical Bayesian belief network model, the several variables affecting the probability of ship collision have been divided into groups which form the sub models of the model. One sub model is the components of safety management. This sub model is constructed based on a qualitative safety management model and expert elicitation. In the future, the tool will also model the effects and costs of various decision alternatives. Then it can be utilized in choosing the optimal safety management -related risk control options for maritime traffic.